A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Gabriel Diallo goes up against Kyrian Jacquet in the Montreal first round. Kyrian Jacquet has won 3 of the last 10. Gabriel Diallo has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

Kyrian Jacquet is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Jacquet around 55%. Little separates them; Jacquet gets the nod on the finest of margins.