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Kickoff in 6 daysCollege football and NFL, week 1

Know what the score means, before kickoff.

A win probability on every college football and NFL game we cover, a one page read you can print, and a public grade the week after. This week’s football is open below: no account, no email.

1,444

graded picks, all sports

60.7%

how often our tennis pick won

12

picks on the board today

878 of 1,444 settled picks won, across tennis, cricket and UFC. Tennis: 829 of 1,365 · Cricket: 24 of 40 · UFC: 25 of 39 · the full chart

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This week in college football

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College football · Week 1, 2026 · By Sparks

Best College Football Games, Week 1 2026

The 5 biggest games of week 1, with our win probability on every one we have a number on — and a straight answer on the one we do not.

4 previewed with a prediction · 1 we have no call on

Next up in the UFC

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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · By Sparks

The five fights worth watching at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Who wins, how each one likely ends, and the call we make loudest.

5 bouts previewed, a number on every one

A free Gameplan sheet, ahead of the season

Free this week · College football · Week 1, 2026 · September 6

The Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels Gameplan

One printable page: our 68% on Ole Miss Rebels, and what that number becomes from any score at the end of the first quarter, the half, the third, and late in the fourth.

Read the whole sheet, free →

Recent results

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Earlier picks

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Tournaments we're covering

Why accuracy alone isn’t the test

A desk that only picks huge favorites looks great and says nothing. The real test is whether our percentages hold up — when we say 70%, does it win 70% of the time? See the full chart, including where we’ve run overconfident.

The four questions people actually ask

Why would I pay when the picks are free?
You would not, for the picks. Pro is coverage and timing: every game on the board rather than a share of it, a sheet for each one, and the re-read near kickoff. The same numbers, more of them, sooner.
How do I know the numbers mean anything?
Because the calibration is public and you can slice it. A desk that shows only a win rate is showing you the flattering half. Ours shows how often each confidence band actually landed.
What if it is not for me?
The first 14 days refund in full, no questions asked, and cancelling takes one click. $7 a month, or $70 a year.
Is this a tipping service?
No. We publish probabilities and grade them, we do not sell winners, and we have measured that our picks do not beat the closing line. That measurement is on the site too.

How the picks are made

For tennis, we rate players by surface and play the match out point by point, thousands of times. For UFC, our model rates both fighters — age, reach, style, form — and makes its own call: who wins, and how it ends — knockout, submission, or decision. For cricket, we price a side and project a first-innings total before a ball is bowled — pre-toss, no exceptions. For college football, we fit power ratings to more than a decade of results and publish a calibrated win probability for every game we have a call on — and say nothing when we don’t. The numbers are published before each match, and every preview on this site is generated from them — no hindsight edits, ever. The full methodology is written for humans.

Week 1 is the cheapest week to start reading us.

Every football number we publish from here is graded the week after. Start with the free board and judge the record as it fills in.

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