Here’s the test that matters: when we say a number, does it actually hit that often? Every pick is graded against its final pre-match number, and every one of them is on this page.
The tennis record covers every pick we publish — ATP and WTA main tour, and since July 8 challenger events too. Challenger picks count inside the same ATP/WTA buckets below; they’re roughly a tenth of the volume so far. UFC has its own graded section further down. Cricket has its own graded section further down.
Across 1,365 graded tennis picks, our pick won 60.7%; in UFC we're 25-14 over 39 graded picks; in cricket we're 24-16 over 40 graded picks. The tables below show how that holds up at each confidence level — including where we’ve run overconfident. Nothing’s hidden.
1,444
graded picks, all sports
60.7%
tennis pick win rate
0.235
tennis accuracy score
Tennis
Our public tennis record — how often our picks won, an accuracy score, and every graded pick broken out by confidence level.
Graded picks
1,365
the number we posted before each match started, all tours
How often our pick won
60.7%
across every graded pick
Accuracy score
0.235
lower is better; 0.25 = a coin flip
Does the number hold up?
How our picks did, by confidence level
| We said | Matches | Our pick won | Actual rate | Likely range | Accuracy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 362 | 185 | 51.1% | 46.0–56.2% | 0.250 |
| 55-60% | 299 | 178 | 59.5% | 53.9–64.9% | 0.241 |
| 60-65% | 256 | 156 | 60.9% | 54.8–66.7% | 0.238 |
| 65-70% | 171 | 117 | 68.4% | 61.1–74.9% | 0.216 |
| 70-75% | 122 | 81 | 66.4% | 57.6–74.2% | 0.225 |
| 75-80% | 68 | 48 | 70.6% | 58.9–80.1% | 0.212 |
| 80-85% | 43 | 32 | 74.4% | 59.8–85.1% | 0.197 |
| 85-90% | 23 | 17 | 73.9% | 53.5–87.5% | 0.211 |
| 90-95% | 14 | 11 | 78.6% | 52.4–92.4% | 0.186 |
| 95-100% | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 25.0–84.2% | 0.402 |
Grading uses only the number we posted before each match started — locked in before first serve. Retirements and walkovers are excluded.
Set-score accuracy
Every match page shows a "most likely score" — this is how often that exact score actually happened. Best-of-3 and best-of-5 aren't comparable: bo3 has 4 possible scores, bo5 has 6, so bo5 is the harder pick.
Best-of-3
37.9%
exact score correct, 341 of 900
Best-of-5
61.1%
exact score correct, 11 of 18
Set-count calls
Since July 19 every match page carries a set-count call — how many sets we think it goes. Most matches genuinely end in straight sets, so the honest baseline is high: always predicting straight sets would be right about two-thirds of the time in best-of-3. The rows below split our record by what we called, so the bold three-set calls are graded in the open, separately from the safe ones.
Best-of-3 · Straight sets (2)
61.6%
called it, 249 of 404
Best-of-3 · Three sets (3)
37.0%
called it, 88 of 238
Upset calls
About 1 in 11 of our picks back a player the market makes a clear underdog — the betting favorite is the other side. We expect to lose these more often than we win them; the honest comparison is against underdogs in general, who win roughly a third of the time.
Upset-call record
44-84
34.4% of 128 graded calls
If we’d sided with the market
65.6%
how often the market favorite would have won these
How often any underdog wins
~35%
roughly, across underdogs in general
ATP
58.5% of picks won over 829 picks · accuracy score 0.242
WTA
64.2% of picks won over 536 picks · accuracy score 0.225
UFC
Our UFC record: every fight pick we’ve graded, by confidence band. It’s early days: 39 picks graded so far, so read these numbers as a starting point, not a verdict.
Picks graded
39
the number we posted before each fight started
How often our pick won
64.1%
25-14 across every graded fight
Accuracy score
0.226
lower is better; 0.25 = a coin flip
Does the UFC number hold up?
How our UFC picks did, by confidence level
| We said | Fights | Our pick won | Actual rate | Likely range | Accuracy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 13 | 8 | 61.5% | 35.5–82.3% | 0.244 |
| 55-60% | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 16.8–68.7% | 0.261 |
| 60-65% | 7 | 7 | 100.0% | 64.6–100.0% | 0.150 |
| 65-70% | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 30.0–90.3% | 0.223 |
| 70-75% | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 20.8–93.9% | 0.217 |
Grading uses only the number we posted before each fight started — locked in before the walkouts. Cancelled bouts are excluded.
Cricket
Our cricket record: every pre-toss lean we’ve graded, by confidence band. It’s early days: 40 picks graded so far, so read these numbers as a starting point, not a verdict.
Picks graded
40
the number we posted before each match started
How often our lean won
60.0%
24-16 across every graded match
Accuracy score
0.227
lower is better; 0.25 = a coin flip
Does the cricket number hold up?
How our cricket leans did, by confidence level
| We said | Matches | Our lean won | Actual rate | Likely range | Accuracy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 23.2–70.9% | 0.249 |
| 55-60% | 15 | 9 | 60.0% | 35.7–80.2% | 0.233 |
| 60-70% | 8 | 6 | 75.0% | 40.9–92.9% | 0.200 |
| 70-80% | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 30.1–95.4% | 0.187 |
Grading uses only the number we posted before each match started — locked in before the toss. Cancelled fixtures, ties, and no-results are excluded.
College football futures
Our 2026 national championship board — one favorite, one live dog, one longshot, published in the preseason and settled when the title is decided. 3 still open.
- Top pickOhio State Buckeyes16%Open
- ContenderIndiana Hoosiers5%Open
- LongshotTennessee Volunteers2%Open
Futures are reported as a plain board, not a calibration curve — the sample is three picks a season.
NFL futures
Our 2026 Super Bowl board — a team from our top three by simulated title odds, a contender, and a longshot, published before the season and settled when the game is played. 3 still open.
- Top pickSeattle Seahawks23%Open
- ContenderHouston Texans8%Open
- LongshotSan Francisco 49ers3%Open
Futures are reported as a plain board, not a calibration curve — the sample is three picks a season. The numbers come from our own season simulation, and two known limits of it push the top of the board high; the futures page says which.
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