✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 92% on Alexander Zverev, who won 6-2 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 92% Zverev · Most likely score: 3-0 (46%)
Saturday's Wimbledon round of 32 pits Alexander Zverev against Marcos Giron on grass. Alexander Zverev has won 3 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Marcos Giron brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 4-6 across the last ten.
Alexander Zverev has had the better of this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 against Marcos Giron. On grass specifically it reads 2-0 Zverev — worth more than the overall number this week.
Alexander Zverev is clearly higher-rated on grass — our number puts Zverev around 92%. Zverev comes in off a compressed schedule. Giron needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 77% on Karen Khachanov; Flavio Cobolli won 0-6 7-6 6-7 6-2 6-2.
Pick: Khachanov
Win probability: 77% Khachanov · Most likely score: 3-1 (29%)
Saturday's Wimbledon round of 32 pits Flavio Cobolli against Karen Khachanov on grass. Karen Khachanov brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Flavio Cobolli is rolling — 4 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.
The ledger favors Karen Khachanov, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Flavio Cobolli.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Cobolli needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 76% on Iga Swiatek; Alexandra Eala won 7-6 6-2.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 76% Swiatek · Most likely score: 2-0 (47%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alexandra Eala goes up against Iga Swiatek in the Wimbledon round of 32. Iga Swiatek has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Alexandra Eala is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
They have split their 2 previous meetings evenly at 1-1.
Swiatek's 64.6% behind the first serve (against 59.2% for Eala) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Eala needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 76% on Linda Noskova, who won 2-6 6-3 7-6.
Pick: Noskova
Win probability: 76% Noskova · Most likely score: 2-0 (46%)
Linda Noskova and Sorana Cirstea meet in the round of 32 at Wimbledon on Saturday. Linda Noskova brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Sorana Cirstea brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
The ledger favors Sorana Cirstea, 3-2 across their 5 meetings with Linda Noskova.
The serve is where this match separates: Noskova has been winning 68.8% of first-serve points to Cirstea's 62.9%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Cirstea needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Matteo Berrettini at 74% lost to Grigor Dimitrov (6-3 6-4 3-6 5-7 6-3).
Pick: Berrettini
Win probability: 74% Berrettini · Most likely score: 3-1 (28%)
Saturday's Wimbledon round of 32 pits Grigor Dimitrov against Matteo Berrettini on grass. Matteo Berrettini brings a 10-match winning streak into this one, 10-0 across the last ten. Grigor Dimitrov is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Nothing separates them historically — the head-to-head sits at 1-1.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Dimitrov needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 69% on Maria Sakkari; Jasmine Paolini won 6-1 6-2.
Pick: Sakkari
Win probability: 69% Sakkari · Most likely score: 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Jasmine Paolini goes up against Maria Sakkari in the Wimbledon round of 32. Maria Sakkari brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Jasmine Paolini is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Maria Sakkari has had the better of this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 against Jasmine Paolini.
Sakkari's 65.2% behind the first serve (against 60.3% for Paolini) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Sakkari should have enough here, though Paolini has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 69% on Madison Keys, who won 3-6 6-2 6-3.
Pick: Keys
Win probability: 69% Keys · Most likely score: 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Amanda Anisimova goes up against Madison Keys in the Wimbledon round of 32. Madison Keys is rolling — 7 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Amanda Anisimova has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
Amanda Anisimova has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Madison Keys.
The serve is where this match separates: Keys has been winning 65.6% of first-serve points to Anisimova's 61.5%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Keys — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Emma Navarro at 68%, but Marta Kostyuk won 6-2 4-6 6-1.
Pick: Navarro
Win probability: 68% Navarro · Most likely score: 2-0 (39%)
Saturday's Wimbledon round of 32 pits Emma Navarro against Marta Kostyuk on grass. Emma Navarro comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Marta Kostyuk comes in at 9 wins from the last ten.
The ledger favors Emma Navarro, 4-0 across their 4 meetings with Marta Kostyuk. On grass specifically it reads 2-0 Navarro — worth more than the overall number this week.
Emma Navarro simply rates much higher on grass, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Navarro.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Alex De Minaur at 68% before the match, and Alex De Minaur won 6-2 5-7 6-2 6-4.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 68% Minaur · Most likely score: 3-1 (26%)
Saturday's Wimbledon round of 32 pits Alex De Minaur against Zachary Svajda on grass. Alex De Minaur is 7-3 across recent matches. Zachary Svajda has won 8 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Minaur should have enough here, though Svajda has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Taylor Fritz was our 67% pick, and won 4-6 6-3 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 67% Fritz · Most likely score: 3-1 (26%)
Saturday's Wimbledon round of 32 pits Lorenzo Sonego against Taylor Fritz on grass. Taylor Fritz brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Lorenzo Sonego is rolling — 3 straight wins, 5 of 10 in recent play.
The ledger favors Taylor Fritz, 6-2 across their 8 meetings with Lorenzo Sonego. On grass specifically it reads 1-0 Fritz — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Fritz comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Fritz — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 63% on Jiri Lehecka, who won 6-4 6-4 4-6 6-4.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 63% Lehecka · Most likely score: 3-1 (24%)
Saturday's Wimbledon round of 32 pits Jaume Munar against Jiri Lehecka on grass. Jiri Lehecka brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Jaume Munar brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten.
The ledger favors Jiri Lehecka, 2-1 across their 3 meetings with Jaume Munar.
The serve is where this match separates: Lehecka has been winning 72.5% of first-serve points to Munar's 68.3%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Lehecka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Liudmila Samsonova at 61%, but Marie Bouzkova won 4-6 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Samsonova
Win probability: 61% Samsonova · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Liudmila Samsonova goes up against Marie Bouzkova in the Wimbledon round of 32. Liudmila Samsonova comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Marie Bouzkova is rolling — 7 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.
Liudmila Samsonova has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Marie Bouzkova.
Samsonova's 69.3% behind the first serve (against 61.8% for Bouzkova) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Samsonova should have enough here, though Bouzkova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 61% on Alexander Bublik, who won 4-6 7-6 7-6 4-6 6-3.
Pick: Bublik
Win probability: 61% Bublik · Most likely score: 3-1 (23%)
Alexander Bublik and Frances Tiafoe meet in the round of 32 at Wimbledon on Saturday. Alexander Bublik brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Frances Tiafoe has won 9 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall.
Nothing separates them historically — the head-to-head sits at 2-2. On grass they're dead even at 1-1 — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 77.4% versus 72.4% on first-serve points in Bublik's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bublik.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Ashlyn Krueger at 59% before the match, and Ashlyn Krueger won 6-3 6-2.
Pick: Krueger
Win probability: 59% Krueger · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)
Saturday's Wimbledon round of 32 pits Ashlyn Krueger against Daria Snigur on grass. Ashlyn Krueger is 5-5 across recent matches. Daria Snigur comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The serve is where this match separates: Krueger has been winning 63.2% of first-serve points to Snigur's 59.5%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Krueger gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 55% on Elena Rybakina; Elise Mertens won 7-6 6-1.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 55% Rybakina · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%)
Elena Rybakina and Elise Mertens meet in the round of 32 at Wimbledon on Saturday. Elena Rybakina has won 6 of the last 10. Elise Mertens has won 6 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Elena Rybakina, 7-1 across their 8 meetings with Elise Mertens.
Rybakina's 70.1% behind the first serve (against 63.4% for Mertens) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Rybakina fractionally more likely to land the big points.