Saturday's Wimbledon round of 32 pits Elena Rybakina against Elise Mertens on grass. Elena Rybakina is 6-4 across recent matches. Elise Mertens comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Elena Rybakina leads the head-to-head 7-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.

Hold strength tells the story — 70.1% versus 63.4% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Rybakina is exactly that — a lean.