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Newport Predictions & Picks — July 10, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 10, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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7 matches are on Friday's card at Newport, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Darwin Blanch against Jacob Fearnley in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Blanch over Fearnley, Mandlik over Volynets, Kozlov over Fearnley, Maria over Stefanini, Walton over Gea, Michelsen over Broady, and 1 more.

The boldest call on the card: Mandlik over Volynets — the market disagrees with us there.

Jacob Fearnley vs. Stefan Kozlov

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Stefan Kozlov at 52%, but Jacob Fearnley won 3-6 6-3 6-2.

Pick: Kozlov

Win probability: 52% Kozlov · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%) · Could go long: 47% chance of a full three sets

Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov meet in the round of 16 at Newport on Friday. Stefan Kozlov is 3-7 across recent matches. Jacob Fearnley limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Fearnley is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling; Kozlov is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kozlov fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Adam Walton vs. Arthur Gea

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Adam Walton was our 55% pick, and won 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Walton

Win probability: 55% Walton · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)

Adam Walton and Arthur Gea meet in the quarterfinal at Newport on Friday. Adam Walton comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Arthur Gea has won 4 of the last 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Walton comes in off a compressed schedule; Gea comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Walton gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Alex Michelsen vs. Liam Broady

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Alex Michelsen was our 56% pick, and won 6-3 7-6(6).

Pick: Michelsen

Win probability: 56% Michelsen · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alex Michelsen goes up against Liam Broady in the Newport quarterfinal. Alex Michelsen comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Liam Broady comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Hold strength tells the story — 71.1% versus 67.2% on first-serve points in Michelsen's favor. Michelsen comes in off a compressed schedule; Broady comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Michelsen is exactly that — a lean.

Elizabeth Mandlik vs. Katie Volynets

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 51% on Elizabeth Mandlik; Katie Volynets won 3-6 6-4 6-3.

Pick: MandlikUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Volynets the favorite; our numbers say Mandlik.

Win probability: 51% Mandlik · Most likely score: 2-1 (26%) · Could go long: 52% chance of a full three sets

Elizabeth Mandlik and Katie Volynets meet in the quarterfinal at Newport on Friday. Elizabeth Mandlik has won 3 in a row and 4 of the last 10 overall. Katie Volynets is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Mandlik's 62.2% behind the first serve (against 57% for Volynets) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Mandlik comes in off a compressed schedule; Volynets comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Mandlik fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Lucrezia Stefanini vs. Tatjana Maria

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Tatjana Maria at 62% before the match, and Tatjana Maria won 6-1 6-0.

Pick: Maria

Win probability: 62% Maria · Most likely score: 2-0 (42%)

Lucrezia Stefanini and Tatjana Maria meet in the quarterfinal at Newport on Friday. Tatjana Maria is 6-4 across recent matches. Lucrezia Stefanini has won 3 of the last 10.

The ledger favors Lucrezia Stefanini, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Tatjana Maria.

Hold strength tells the story — 65.5% versus 54.8% on first-serve points in Maria's favor. Stefanini comes in off a compressed schedule; Maria comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Maria — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Greet Minnen vs. Madison Brengle

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 57% on Greet Minnen, who won 7-5 6-0.

Pick: Minnen

Win probability: 57% Minnen · Most likely score: 2-0 (37%)

Greet Minnen and Madison Brengle meet in the quarterfinal at Newport on Friday. Greet Minnen has won 6 of the last 10. Madison Brengle has won 4 of the last 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Minnen's 64.8% behind the first serve (against 57.5% for Brengle) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Minnen comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Minnen fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Darwin Blanch vs. Jacob Fearnley

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Darwin Blanch at 51% lost to Jacob Fearnley (6-3 6-3).

Pick: BlanchUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Fearnley the favorite; our numbers say Blanch.

Win probability: 51% Blanch · Most likely score: 2-0 (27%) · Could go long: 48% chance of a full three sets

Friday's Newport quarterfinal pits Darwin Blanch against Jacob Fearnley on grass. Darwin Blanch is 6-4 across recent matches. Jacob Fearnley is 6-4 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Jacob Fearnley, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Darwin Blanch. On grass specifically it reads 1-0 Fearnley — worth more than the overall number this week.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Blanch comes in off a compressed schedule; Fearnley is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling. Little separates them; Blanch gets the nod on the finest of margins.

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Updated Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.