Best NFL Games, Week 6, 2026
The 5 biggest games of Week 6, with our win probability on every one.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before kickoff, and nothing here is edited after the fact.
- Jacksonville Jaguars-132
- Seattle Seahawks-132
- Green Bay Packers-110
- Chicago Bears-146
Consensus across books when this was published, October 14, 2026. Prices move; we do not update them here.
Week 6 of the 2026 NFL season gives us 5 games worth clearing your schedule for. Our strongest number on the slate is Baltimore Ravens at 66% to win against Cleveland Browns. The desk has a call on 14 of the 14 games being played, and every one of them is published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards — misses included.
Every NFL prediction we published for Week 6, 2026 is on the Week 6, 2026 board.
1. Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction — NFL London Game
Jacksonville Jaguars, 64% to win. We project them by 4.5.
Projected total 42.2.
Our pick missed: Jacksonville Jaguars lost by 3. We had them at 64%, and it stays on the record.
Jacksonville Jaguars at 64% is where the desk lands. That is comfortable without being close to safe. We project them by 4.5. We have it as a grind.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offence separates these division rivals. Jacksonville ranks 13th in overall offence and ninth through the air, while the Houston Texans carry the 24th-ranked offence into Wembley Stadium for the NFL London Game. Houston defends the pass at a first-ranked level, but their own broken attack makes this matchup a grind.
2. Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos prediction
Seattle Seahawks, 60% to win. We project them by 3.3.
Projected total 44.1.
Our pick missed: Seattle Seahawks lost by 3. We had them at 60%, and it stays on the record.
We make it Seattle Seahawks, 60% to win. That is a little better than a coin flip. We project them by 3.3.
Seattle's passing game is the edge here. Their offence ranks 8th overall and 6th through the air, while Denver's 18th-ranked offence faces a Seattle defence sitting 2nd against the pass this season. Empower Field at Mile High sits a mile above sea level, and visiting teams feel the fourth quarter on a short week.
3. Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers prediction
Green Bay Packers, 53% to win. We project them by 1.
Projected total 49.8.
Our pick landed: Green Bay Packers won by 10. We had them at 53%.
Green Bay Packers, 53% to win, and that is the call. That is barely a lean, and the honest read is that this is close to even. We project them by 1. We have it as a high-scoring game.
The Green Bay Packers hold the top-ranked passing attack this season and face a Dallas Cowboys defence ranked 32nd overall. Dallas counters with the 6th-ranked offence against Green Bay's 21st-ranked defence. With two elite passing games taking on bottom-tier defences, expect a high-scoring game at Lambeau Field, where Green Bay's defence is the lone separator.
4. Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons prediction
Chicago Bears, 56% to win. We project them by 1.9.
Projected total 46.2.
Our pick landed: Chicago Bears won by 8. We had them at 56%.
Chicago Bears, 56% to win, and that is the call. That is the thin end of a call, and we will say so. We project them by 1.9.
The Chicago Bears offence separates these teams. Chicago carry a 9th-ranked offence this season into a meeting with an Atlanta Falcons defence ranked 16th. Atlanta counter with a 21st-ranked offence against a Chicago defence ranked 22nd. Neither group holds a clear passing edge, leaving the Bears side of the ball to set the pace in a projected 46.2-point game.
Every number above went on the record before kickoff and gets graded afterwards, win or lose. The misses stay up.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns?
- Our model makes Baltimore Ravens 66% to win against Cleveland Browns. That number was published before kickoff and will be graded in public afterwards.
- What is the biggest NFL game in Week 6?
- Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars is the game we rate highest this week, on a combination of how good both teams are, how close we expect it to be, and where it sits in the broadcast schedule.
- How many games does the desk have a call on this week?
- 14 of the 14 games being played. Our NFL board carries a number on every game on the slate rather than withholding the close ones, and every one of them is graded afterwards, win or lose.
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Every prediction here is graded after the game and kept up, hit or miss.