NFL Predictions
Maiden publishes a win probability for every NFL game on the weekly slate: which side, how likely, and a projected total for context. The full board, every week, with ties void.
54
graded NFL picks
61.1%
how often our pick won
Up next on the Week 5, 2026 board
See all 11 games →The games still to play, earliest kickoff first. A game in progress stays at the top until it is graded.
- Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars, 74% to win
Projected total 42.8
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Pro pickOpens to everyone once it grades. Pro opens it now
- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Pro pickOpens to everyone once it grades. Pro opens it now
- Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pro pickOpens to everyone once it grades. Pro opens it now
- Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Pro pickOpens to everyone once it grades. Pro opens it now
This week’s preview
Best NFL Games, Week 5, 2026
The 5 biggest games of Week 5, with our win probability on every one.
4 previewed with a prediction
Our 2026 Super Bowl board
Three picks from three bands of our own simulation: a team from our top three by title odds, a pick from the tier below, and a genuine longshot. 3 still open.
- Seattle SeahawksMaiden gives the Seattle Seahawks a 23% shot at the 2026 Super Bowl — one of our top three teams by simulated title odds.
- Houston TexansMaiden gives the Houston Texans an 8% shot at the 2026 Super Bowl — our pick from the tier below the favourites.
- San Francisco 49ersMaiden gives the San Francisco 49ers a 3% shot at the 2026 Super Bowl — a genuine longshot, in our 1-3% band.
Maiden’s NFL predictions, explained
What does Maiden publish for an NFL game?
For every game on the slate, the model produces a win probability for the side we pick, a projected spread, and a projected total. What gets gradedis the win probability. The spread and the total are published as context and nothing more — and the spread is ours, not a bookmaker’s.
Does Maiden cover every NFL game?
Yes — the whole slate, every week. There is always a pick side, so the closest games publish just past 50% rather than being withheld, and our confidence is capped at 90%, the edge of the calibration table the model was validated on.
What happens when an NFL game ends in a tie?
A tie is void. One or two games a season end level, and a void pick counts neither for nor against the record — it shows in the results as a tie, and it never enters the win-loss record or the calibration table.
Does Maiden publish odds, prices, or units?
We publish our own projected spread and total on every game we cover, and where we have a licensed market number we show it beside ours, labelled as the market's: our probability against the market's, so you can see where we disagree and by how much. What we still never publish is a stake, or how much to risk, and we recommend nothing to back. Only the win probability is graded, and it is graded whether it wins or loses. Nothing here is betting advice.
How are the NFL predictions graded?
Every NFL call is graded after the game against the official result, in the same public track record as the tennis, UFC, cricket and college football picks.
Every NFL pick, graded · full track record.