NFL predictions
Maiden publishes a win probability for every NFL game on the weekly slate: which side, how likely, and a projected margin and total for context. The full board, every week, with ties void.
The Week 1, 2026 board
See all 16 games →Every game on the slate gets a call. These are the 5 we are most confident about this week.
- Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars, 80% to win · -11
Projected total 44.4
- Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles, 72% to win · -7.7
Projected total 45.4
- New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions, 71% to win · -7.3
Projected total 47.3
- Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers, 70% to win · -6.8
Projected total 45.7
- New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks, 68% to win · -6.1
Projected total 44.6
Our 2026 Super Bowl board
Three picks from three bands of our own simulation: a team from our top three by title odds, a pick from the tier below, and a genuine longshot. 3 still open.
- Seattle SeahawksMaiden gives the Seattle Seahawks a 23% shot at the 2026 Super Bowl — one of our top three teams by simulated title odds.
- Houston TexansMaiden gives the Houston Texans an 8% shot at the 2026 Super Bowl — our pick from the tier below the favourites.
- San Francisco 49ersMaiden gives the San Francisco 49ers a 3% shot at the 2026 Super Bowl — a genuine longshot, in our 1-3% band.
Maiden’s NFL predictions, explained
What does Maiden publish for an NFL game?
For every game on the slate, the model produces a win probability for the side we pick, a projected spread, and a projected total. What gets gradedis the win probability. The spread and the total are published as context and nothing more — and the spread is ours, not a bookmaker’s.
Does Maiden cover every NFL game?
Yes — the whole slate, every week. There is always a pick side, so the closest games publish just past 50% rather than being withheld, and our confidence is capped at 90%, the edge of the calibration table the model was validated on.
What happens when an NFL game ends in a tie?
A tie is void. One or two games a season end level, and a void pick counts neither for nor against the record — it shows in the results as a tie, and it never enters the win-loss record or the calibration table.
Does Maiden publish odds, prices, or units?
No. What never gets published is a price, a stake, or a unit. We show our own numbers and the record they produced; sportsbook and exchange prices are theirs to display, not ours to republish. Nothing here is betting advice.
How are the NFL predictions graded?
Every NFL call is graded after the game against the official result, in the same public track record as the tennis, UFC, cricket and college football picks.