NFL Fantasy Football Rankings & Projections — Week 1, 2026

Weekly projections for every startable quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end, in standard, half-PPR and full-PPR scoring — the full board, open, and graded against actual points the week after it publishes.

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184 of 184 players

Quarterbacks, Week 1, 2026 (44 players)

Quarterbacks fantasy projections for Week 1, 2026, ranked by projected points, identical in all three scoring formats.
Rk	Player	Game	Pts	Range
1	Jalen HurtsEagles	vs Commanders	17.3	7.8–27.5
2	Josh AllenBills	at Texans	16.6	7.2–26.7
3	Justin HerbertChargers	vs Cardinals	16.6	7.2–26.7
4	Dak PrescottCowboys	at Giants	16.3	6.9–26.3
5	Brock Purdy49ers	at Rams	16.1	6.7–26.1
6	Lamar JacksonRavens	at Colts	15.9	6.6–26.0
7	Joe BurrowBengals	vs Buccaneers	15.9	6.6–25.9
8	Kyler MurrayVikings	vs Packers	15.9	6.5–25.9
9	Patrick MahomesChiefs	vs Broncos	15.5	6.2–25.5
10	Jared GoffLions	vs Saints	15.4	6.1–25.4
11	Jayden DanielsCommanders	at Eagles	15.1	5.9–25.1
12	Caleb WilliamsBears	at Panthers	15.0	5.8–24.9
13	Baker MayfieldBuccaneers	at Bengals	15.0	5.8–24.9
14	Jaxson DartGiants	vs Cowboys	15.0	5.8–24.9
15	Matthew StaffordRams	vs 49ers	14.9	5.6–24.7
16	Trevor LawrenceJaguars	vs Browns	14.8	5.6–24.6
17	Drake MayePatriots	at Seahawks	14.7	5.5–24.6
22	Daniel JonesColts	vs Ravens	13.9	4.8–23.7
23	Tyler ShoughSaints	at Lions	13.9	4.8–23.7
24	Jordan LovePackers	at Vikings	13.7	4.7–23.5
25	C.J. StroudTexans	vs Bills	13.6	4.5–23.3
28	Sam DarnoldSeahawks	vs Patriots	13.2	4.2–22.9
29	Bryce YoungPanthers	vs Bears	13.2	4.2–22.8
30	Bo NixBroncos	at Chiefs	13.1	4.1–22.8
31	Aaron RodgersSteelers	vs Falcons	13.0	4.0–22.7
35	Michael Penix Jr.Falcons	at Steelers	12.3	3.4–21.9
36	Jacoby BrissettCardinals	at Chargers	12.2	3.4–21.8
37	Kirk CousinsRaiders	vs Dolphins	11.9	3.1–21.4
40	Cam WardTitans	vs Jets	11.2	2.5–20.6
41	Geno SmithJets	at Titans	11.2	2.4–20.5
42	Shedeur SandersBrowns	at Jaguars	10.9	2.2–20.2
43	Quinn EwersDolphins	at Raiders	10.6	1.9–19.9
—	Justin FieldsChiefsBackup	vs Broncos	—	—
—	Joe FlaccoBengalsBackup	vs Buccaneers	—	—
—	Jake BrowningBuccaneersBackup	at Bengals	—	—
—	Marcus MariotaCommandersBackup	at Eagles	—	—
—	J.J. McCarthyVikingsBackup	vs Packers	—	—
—	Carson WentzVikingsBackup	vs Packers	—	—
—	Tyrod TaylorPackersBackup	at Vikings	—	—
—	Spencer RattlerSaintsBackup	at Lions	—	—
—	Mac Jones49ersBackup	at Rams	—	—
—	Davis MillsTexansBackup	vs Bills	—	—
—	Tua TagovailoaFalconsBackup	at Steelers	—	—
—	Brady CookJetsBackup	at Titans	—	—

Each call, in one sentence(22)

Our projection has Jalen Hurts at 17.3 half-PPR points against the Commanders in Week 1, 2026, our QB1.
Our projection has Josh Allen at 16.6 half-PPR points at the Texans in Week 1, 2026, our QB2.
Our projection has Justin Herbert at 16.6 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 1, 2026, our QB3.
Our projection has Dak Prescott at 16.3 half-PPR points at the Giants in Week 1, 2026, our QB4.
Our projection has Brock Purdy at 16.1 half-PPR points at the Rams in Week 1, 2026, our QB5.
Our projection has Lamar Jackson at 15.9 half-PPR points at the Colts in Week 1, 2026, our QB6.
Our projection has Joe Burrow at 15.9 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 1, 2026, our QB7.
Our projection has Kyler Murray at 15.9 half-PPR points against the Packers in Week 1, 2026, our QB8.
Our projection has Patrick Mahomes at 15.5 half-PPR points against the Broncos in Week 1, 2026, our QB9.
Our projection has Jared Goff at 15.4 half-PPR points against the Saints in Week 1, 2026, our QB10.
Justin Fields is listed as a backup for the Chiefs in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Joe Flacco is listed as a backup for the Bengals in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Jake Browning is listed as a backup for the Buccaneers in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Marcus Mariota is listed as a backup for the Commanders in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
J.J. McCarthy is listed as a backup for the Vikings in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Carson Wentz is listed as a backup for the Vikings in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Tyrod Taylor is listed as a backup for the Packers in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Spencer Rattler is listed as a backup for the Saints in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Mac Jones is listed as a backup for the 49ers in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Davis Mills is listed as a backup for the Texans in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Tua Tagovailoa is listed as a backup for the Falcons in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Brady Cook is listed as a backup for the Jets in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.

Running Backs, Week 1, 2026 (55 players)

Running Backs fantasy projections for Week 1, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
Rk	Player	Game	Std	Half-PPR	PPR	Range
1	Christian McCaffrey49ers	at Rams	13.0	15.3	17.6	6.5–27.0
2	Jahmyr GibbsLions	vs Saints	13.5	15.2	16.9	6.4–26.8
3	Bijan RobinsonFalcons	at Steelers	11.6	13.4	15.2	5.1–24.4
4	Omarion HamptonChargers	vs Cardinals	11.9	13.3	14.7	5.0–24.3
5	Saquon BarkleyEagles	vs Commanders	12.2	13.3	14.4	5.0–24.3
6	Chase BrownBengals	vs Buccaneers	11.6	13.3	14.9	5.0–24.2
7	Jonathan TaylorColts	vs Ravens	11.6	12.8	13.9	4.6–23.5
8	James CookBills	at Texans	11.7	12.7	13.7	4.6–23.5
9	De'Von AchaneDolphins	at Raiders	10.9	12.6	14.3	4.5–23.4
10	Derrick HenryRavens	at Colts	11.9	12.6	13.3	4.5–23.3
11	Kyren WilliamsRams	vs 49ers	11.1	12.2	13.3	4.2–22.8
12	Bucky IrvingBuccaneers	at Bengals	10.8	12.1	13.4	4.1–22.7
13	Ashton JeantyRaiders	vs Dolphins	10.6	12.0	13.4	4.0–22.6
14	Javonte WilliamsCowboys	at Giants	10.8	12.0	13.1	4.0–22.5
15	D'Andre SwiftBears	at Panthers	10.3	11.5	12.6	3.6–21.8
16	Rico DowdleSteelers	vs Falcons	10.1	11.2	12.3	3.4–21.4
17	Jaylen WarrenSteelers	vs Falcons	10.0	11.1	12.2	3.4–21.3
18	Josh JacobsPackers	at Vikings	9.8	10.9	12.0	3.2–21.1
19	Aaron JonesVikings	vs Packers	9.7	10.9	12.1	3.2–21.0
20	Tony PollardTitans	vs Jets	9.8	10.8	11.8	3.1–20.9
21	Cam SkatteboGiants	vs Cowboys	9.4	10.8	12.1	3.1–20.9
22	Kimani VidalChargers	vs Cardinals	9.9	10.7	11.5	3.0–20.8
23	Breece HallJets	at Titans	9.1	10.3	11.4	2.7–20.2
24	Kenneth Walker IIIChiefs	vs Broncos	9.3	10.2	11.2	2.7–20.1
25	J.K. DobbinsBroncos	at Chiefs	9.4	10.2	10.9	2.7–20.1
26	Travis EtienneSaints	at Lions	9.0	10.1	11.3	2.6–20.0
27	Tyrone Tracy Jr.Giants	vs Cowboys	8.8	10.0	11.1	2.5–19.8
28	Kenny GainwellBuccaneers	at Bengals	8.2	9.8	11.4	2.4–19.6
29	Isiah PachecoLions	vs Saints	8.8	9.7	10.6	2.3–19.4
30	Alvin KamaraSaints	at Lions	8.3	9.5	10.8	2.2–19.2
31	Zach CharbonnetSeahawks	vs Patriots	8.5	9.3	10.1	2.0–18.9
32	Kyle MonangaiBears	at Panthers	8.4	9.2	10.0	2.0–18.8
33	Quinshon JudkinsBrowns	at Jaguars	8.1	9.2	10.2	1.9–18.7
34	TreVeyon HendersonPatriots	at Seahawks	8.1	9.1	10.2	1.9–18.7
35	Woody MarksTexans	vs Bills	8.2	9.1	10.0	1.9–18.7
36	Jordan MasonVikings	vs Packers	8.2	8.9	9.5	1.7–18.3
37	Michael CarterTitans	vs Jets	7.6	8.8	10.0	1.7–18.3
38	Tyjae SpearsTitans	vs Jets	7.4	8.7	10.1	1.6–18.1
39	Jawhar JordanTexans	vs Bills	7.9	8.7	9.5	1.6–18.1
40	RJ HarveyBroncos	at Chiefs	7.4	8.7	9.9	1.5–18.1
41	Rhamondre StevensonPatriots	at Seahawks	7.6	8.6	9.7	1.5–18.0
42	Chuba HubbardPanthers	vs Bears	7.6	8.6	9.6	1.5–18.0
43	Chris Rodriguez Jr.Jaguars	vs Browns	7.9	8.4	8.9	1.4–17.7
44	Trey BensonCardinals	at Chargers	6.9	8.3	9.6	1.2–17.5
45	Blake CorumRams	vs 49ers	7.7	8.3	8.9	1.2–17.5
46	Audric EstiméSaints	at Lions	7.2	8.2	9.3	1.2–17.5
47	David MontgomeryTexans	vs Bills	7.2	8.1	8.9	1.1–17.3
48	Rachaad WhiteCommanders	at Eagles	6.9	8.0	9.1	1.0–17.2
49	Emanuel WilsonSeahawks	vs Patriots	7.1	7.8	8.5	0.9–16.9
50	Jacory Croskey-MerrittCommanders	at Eagles	7.1	7.7	8.3	0.8–16.8
51	Devin SingletaryGiants	vs Cowboys	6.5	7.2	7.9	0.5–16.1
52	Devin NealSaints	at Lions	6.2	7.1	8.0	0.4–16.0
53	Bam KnightCardinals	at Chargers	5.9	6.9	7.9	0.2–15.7
54	Jaylen WrightDolphins	at Raiders	6.1	6.8	7.4	0.1–15.5
55	Tyler AllgeierCardinals	at Chargers	5.8	6.5	7.2	0.0–15.1

Each call, in one sentence(10)

Our projection has Christian McCaffrey at 15.3 half-PPR points at the Rams in Week 1, 2026, our RB1.
Our projection has Jahmyr Gibbs at 15.2 half-PPR points against the Saints in Week 1, 2026, our RB2.
Our projection has Bijan Robinson at 13.4 half-PPR points at the Steelers in Week 1, 2026, our RB3.
Our projection has Omarion Hampton at 13.3 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 1, 2026, our RB4.
Our projection has Saquon Barkley at 13.3 half-PPR points against the Commanders in Week 1, 2026, our RB5.
Our projection has Chase Brown at 13.3 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 1, 2026, our RB6.
Our projection has Jonathan Taylor at 12.8 half-PPR points against the Ravens in Week 1, 2026, our RB7.
Our projection has James Cook at 12.7 half-PPR points at the Texans in Week 1, 2026, our RB8.
Our projection has De'Von Achane at 12.6 half-PPR points at the Raiders in Week 1, 2026, our RB9.
Our projection has Derrick Henry at 12.6 half-PPR points at the Colts in Week 1, 2026, our RB10.

Wide Receivers, Week 1, 2026 (56 players)

Wide Receivers fantasy projections for Week 1, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
Rk	Player	Game	Std	Half-PPR	PPR	Range
1	Ja'Marr ChaseBengals	vs Buccaneers	12.0	15.2	18.5	6.4–27.1
2	Puka NacuaRams	vs 49ers	11.0	14.1	17.3	5.7–25.6
3	Amon-Ra St. BrownLions	vs Saints	10.4	13.6	16.9	5.3–24.9
4	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeahawks	vs Patriots	9.4	12.4	15.4	4.4–23.2
5	CeeDee LambCowboys	at Giants	9.4	12.2	15.0	4.3–23.0
6	Rashee RiceChiefs	vs Broncos	8.9	11.9	15.0	4.1–22.6
7	George PickensCowboys	at Giants	9.2	11.5	13.9	3.8–22.0
8	Justin JeffersonVikings	vs Packers	9.0	11.5	14.1	3.8–22.0
9	Chris OlaveSaints	at Lions	8.5	11.2	14.0	3.6–21.6
10	Davante AdamsRams	vs 49ers	8.4	10.8	13.3	3.3–21.0
11	A.J. BrownPatriots	at Seahawks	8.2	10.6	13.1	3.1–20.8
12	Mike Evans49ers	at Rams	8.2	10.5	12.8	3.0–20.6
13	Nico CollinsTexans	vs Bills	8.0	10.5	12.9	3.0–20.5
14	Malik NabersGiants	vs Cowboys	7.9	10.5	13.0	3.0–20.5
15	Zay FlowersRavens	at Colts	8.0	10.3	12.7	2.9–20.4
16	Drake LondonFalcons	at Steelers	7.7	10.3	13.0	2.9–20.4
17	Tee HigginsBengals	vs Buccaneers	8.0	10.1	12.3	2.8–20.1
18	Ladd McConkeyChargers	vs Cardinals	7.9	10.1	12.4	2.8–20.1
19	DeVonta SmithEagles	vs Commanders	7.8	10.1	12.4	2.7–20.0
20	Jameson WilliamsLions	vs Saints	7.8	9.8	11.8	2.5–19.6
21	Emeka EgbukaBuccaneers	at Bengals	7.5	9.5	11.5	2.3–19.2
22	Rome OdunzeBears	at Panthers	7.5	9.5	11.5	2.3–19.2
23	Wan'Dale RobinsonTitans	vs Jets	6.7	9.4	12.2	2.3–19.1
24	Quentin JohnstonChargers	vs Cardinals	7.4	9.4	11.4	2.2–19.0
25	Tetairoa McMillanPanthers	vs Bears	7.1	9.3	11.4	2.1–18.9
26	Keenan AllenColts	vs Ravens	6.8	9.2	11.6	2.1–18.8
27	Jakobi MeyersJaguars	vs Browns	6.8	9.1	11.5	2.1–18.7
28	Deebo Samuel Sr.49ers	at Rams	6.9	9.1	11.2	2.0–18.6
29	DK MetcalfSteelers	vs Falcons	6.9	9.0	11.0	1.9–18.5
30	Chris Godwin Jr.Buccaneers	at Bengals	6.8	8.9	11.1	1.9–18.5
31	Brian Thomas Jr.Jaguars	vs Browns	6.9	8.9	11.0	1.9–18.4
32	Khalil ShakirBills	at Texans	6.5	8.8	11.1	1.8–18.3
33	Michael WilsonCardinals	at Chargers	6.5	8.8	11.1	1.8–18.2
34	Courtland SuttonBroncos	at Chiefs	6.6	8.8	10.9	1.8–18.2
35	Stefon DiggsCommanders	at Eagles	6.4	8.7	10.9	1.7–18.1
36	Jaylen WaddleBroncos	at Chiefs	6.4	8.6	10.8	1.7–18.0
37	Terry McLaurinCommanders	at Eagles	6.5	8.6	10.6	1.7–17.9
38	Ricky Pearsall49ers	at Rams	6.5	8.6	10.6	1.6–17.9
39	Garrett WilsonJets	at Titans	6.1	8.5	10.9	1.6–17.9
40	Michael PittmanSteelers	vs Falcons	6.2	8.5	10.8	1.6–17.8
41	Alec PierceColts	vs Ravens	6.7	8.4	10.1	1.5–17.7
42	Jauan JenningsVikings	vs Packers	6.3	8.3	10.4	1.5–17.6
43	Parker WashingtonJaguars	vs Browns	6.3	8.3	10.3	1.5–17.6
44	Christian WatsonPackers	at Vikings	6.4	8.2	10.0	1.4–17.4
45	Jordan AddisonVikings	vs Packers	6.3	8.2	10.1	1.4–17.4
46	Rashid ShaheedSeahawks	vs Patriots	6.2	8.0	9.9	1.3–17.2
47	Josh DownsColts	vs Ravens	5.8	7.8	9.8	1.1–16.9
48	DJ MooreBills	at Texans	5.8	7.6	9.4	1.0–16.6
49	Marvin Harrison Jr.Cardinals	at Chargers	5.6	7.5	9.3	0.9–16.4
50	Troy FranklinBroncos	at Chiefs	5.4	7.4	9.3	0.8–16.3
51	Tre TuckerRaiders	vs Dolphins	5.5	7.3	9.2	0.8–16.2
52	Romeo DoubsPatriots	at Seahawks	5.3	7.2	9.1	0.7–16.1
53	Jerry JeudyBrowns	at Jaguars	5.3	7.2	9.1	0.7–16.0
54	Xavier WorthyChiefs	vs Broncos	5.4	7.2	9.0	0.7–16.0
55	Calvin RidleyTitans	vs Jets	5.4	7.2	9.0	0.7–16.0
56	Elic AyomanorTitans	vs Jets	5.2	6.8	8.5	0.4–15.6

Each call, in one sentence(10)

Our projection has Ja'Marr Chase at 15.2 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 1, 2026, our WR1.
Our projection has Puka Nacua at 14.1 half-PPR points against the 49ers in Week 1, 2026, our WR2.
Our projection has Amon-Ra St. Brown at 13.6 half-PPR points against the Saints in Week 1, 2026, our WR3.
Our projection has Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 12.4 half-PPR points against the Patriots in Week 1, 2026, our WR4.
Our projection has CeeDee Lamb at 12.2 half-PPR points at the Giants in Week 1, 2026, our WR5.
Our projection has Rashee Rice at 11.9 half-PPR points against the Broncos in Week 1, 2026, our WR6.
Our projection has George Pickens at 11.5 half-PPR points at the Giants in Week 1, 2026, our WR7.
Our projection has Justin Jefferson at 11.5 half-PPR points against the Packers in Week 1, 2026, our WR8.
Our projection has Chris Olave at 11.2 half-PPR points at the Lions in Week 1, 2026, our WR9.
Our projection has Davante Adams at 10.8 half-PPR points against the 49ers in Week 1, 2026, our WR10.

Tight Ends, Week 1, 2026 (29 players)

Tight Ends fantasy projections for Week 1, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
Rk	Player	Game	Std	Half-PPR	PPR	Range
1	George Kittle49ers	at Rams	6.5	8.7	10.8	2.4–17.2
2	Trey McBrideCardinals	at Chargers	5.9	8.6	11.2	2.4–17.0
3	Sam LaPortaLions	vs Saints	6.0	8.0	9.9	2.0–16.1
4	Travis KelceChiefs	vs Broncos	5.9	7.9	10.0	2.0–16.1
5	Brock BowersRaiders	vs Dolphins	5.7	7.9	10.1	2.0–16.0
6	Dallas GoedertEagles	vs Commanders	5.9	7.8	9.8	1.9–15.9
7	Oronde Gadsden IIChargers	vs Cardinals	5.7	7.5	9.3	1.7–15.4
8	Tucker KraftPackers	at Vikings	5.5	7.5	9.4	1.7–15.4
9	Tyler WarrenColts	vs Ravens	5.4	7.4	9.4	1.7–15.2
10	Jake FergusonCowboys	at Giants	5.3	7.3	9.4	1.6–15.1
11	Kyle PittsFalcons	at Steelers	5.3	7.3	9.3	1.6–15.1
12	Colston LovelandBears	at Panthers	5.4	7.2	9.1	1.6–15.0
13	Brenton StrangeJaguars	vs Browns	5.1	7.0	8.9	1.4–14.6
14	Mark AndrewsRavens	at Colts	5.3	7.0	8.7	1.4–14.6
15	Juwan JohnsonSaints	at Lions	5.0	6.9	8.9	1.4–14.5
16	Dalton SchultzTexans	vs Bills	4.9	6.9	9.0	1.4–14.5
17	David NjokuChargers	vs Cardinals	5.1	6.8	8.5	1.3–14.3
18	Cade OttonBuccaneers	at Bengals	4.9	6.7	8.6	1.3–14.2
19	Theo JohnsonGiants	vs Cowboys	4.7	6.5	8.3	1.1–13.9
20	Hunter HenryPatriots	at Seahawks	4.6	6.4	8.3	1.1–13.8
21	Colby ParkinsonRams	vs 49ers	4.7	6.4	8.1	1.1–13.7
22	Harold Fannin Jr.Browns	at Jaguars	4.3	6.3	8.4	1.0–13.6
23	Dalton KincaidBills	at Texans	4.5	6.3	8.0	1.0–13.5
24	Chig OkonkwoCommanders	at Eagles	4.4	6.2	8.1	1.0–13.5
25	T.J. HockensonVikings	vs Packers	4.5	6.2	8.0	0.9–13.5
26	AJ BarnerSeahawks	vs Patriots	4.5	6.2	8.0	0.9–13.4
27	Jake Tonges49ers	at Rams	4.4	6.2	8.0	0.9–13.4
28	Evan EngramBroncos	at Chiefs	4.0	5.8	7.6	0.7–12.7
29	Mason TaylorJets	at Titans	3.8	5.6	7.5	0.6–12.5

Each call, in one sentence(10)

Our projection has George Kittle at 8.7 half-PPR points at the Rams in Week 1, 2026, our TE1.
Our projection has Trey McBride at 8.6 half-PPR points at the Chargers in Week 1, 2026, our TE2.
Our projection has Sam LaPorta at 8.0 half-PPR points against the Saints in Week 1, 2026, our TE3.
Our projection has Travis Kelce at 7.9 half-PPR points against the Broncos in Week 1, 2026, our TE4.
Our projection has Brock Bowers at 7.9 half-PPR points against the Dolphins in Week 1, 2026, our TE5.
Our projection has Dallas Goedert at 7.8 half-PPR points against the Commanders in Week 1, 2026, our TE6.
Our projection has Oronde Gadsden II at 7.5 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 1, 2026, our TE7.
Our projection has Tucker Kraft at 7.5 half-PPR points at the Vikings in Week 1, 2026, our TE8.
Our projection has Tyler Warren at 7.4 half-PPR points against the Ravens in Week 1, 2026, our TE9.
Our projection has Jake Ferguson at 7.3 half-PPR points at the Giants in Week 1, 2026, our TE10.

Start or sit: compare two players

Pick the two you are torn between. The gap is our projection’s, and the rows underneath are the components that produce it. Free, like every number on this board.

Player APlayer BScoring

Our projection has Jalen Hurts ahead by 0.7 Half-PPR points, 17.3 to 16.6. That gap is inside our own error bar; treat it as a tie.

Jalen Hurts compared with Josh Allen, Half-PPR scoring.
	Jalen Hurts	Josh Allen	Gap
Projected Half-PPR	17.3	16.6	0.7
Range (floor–ceiling)	7.8–27.5	7.2–26.7	—
Positional rank	QB1	QB2	—
This week	vs Commanders	at Texans	—
Pass yards	234.3	218.3	16
Rush yards	23.9	27.3	-3.4
Pass TDs	1.5	1.3	0.2
Carries	4.9	5	-0.1
Interceptions	0.8	0.8	0
Rush TDs	0.4	0.4	0

Components are the projection’s own expected stat line, not last week’s box score. Both numbers assume the player takes the field: the model does not forecast whether he is active, which is why the injury row is there and why a player ruled out carries a status instead of a number.

How these projections work

Projections are our own model's output: recent role and usage, shrunk efficiency rates, and the game's scoring environment. The range beside each number is modeled, not a fixed band: the 10th to 90th percentile of that player's outcomes for the week, fit from how projections like his have actually landed. Every projection is graded against actual fantasy points the week after it publishes. Every number is conditional on the player playing: a player ruled out carries his status instead of a projection, and a DNP is excluded from the record, never counted as a zero. Nothing here is betting advice.

Kickers and team defenses are not on the board yet — the model projects the four positions where snaps and usage separate startable players. Team defenses are planned to join around Week 4, kickers later in the season, and both appear here first when they do.