The five fights worth your Saturday at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Who wins, how it ends, and where our numbers are surest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry on Saturday, August 15 carries 9 fights with a published number on them, and five are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Vicente Luque at 60% to beat Tresean Gore. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry is on the full card.
1. Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson, the main event
Maiden picks Mackenzie Dern (52%) by decision over Gillian Robertson.
Most likely: decision 64% · submission 28% · KO/TKO 8%.
Graded: our pick landed. Dern won.
Mackenzie Dern at 52% is where the desk lands. That is barely a lean, and the honest read is that this is close to even. The likeliest ending is a decision at 64%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 64%. Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson meet in a five-round headliner on Saturday, 10:45 PM ET. A submission sits at 28% while a knockout is a longshot at 8%. Robertson and Dern are scheduled for five rounds, but the 64% distance percentage suggests the judges will decide this fight.
2. Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj
Maiden picks Neil Magny (54%) by submission over Ramiz Brahimaj. An upset call: the market leans the other way.
Most likely: decision 41% · submission 34% · KO/TKO 25%.
Graded: our pick landed. Magny won.
We make it Neil Magny, 54% to win. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. How it ends most often in our read: submission, at 34%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 41%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Neil Magny anyway. A submission is the most likely method of finish for this three-round bout on Saturday, 10 PM ET. Neil Magny has a 25% chance to win by knockout, while the decision probability is 41%. Ramiz Brahimaj must navigate these finishing threats on the card.
3. Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez
Maiden picks Joel Alvarez (57%) by KO/TKO over Chidi Njokuani.
Most likely: decision 44% · KO/TKO 39% · submission 18%.
Graded: our pick missed. Njokuani won, and the miss stays on the record.
Joel Alvarez, 57% to win, and that is the call. That is the thin end of a call, and we will say so. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 39%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 44%.
Three rounds, so nobody gets to ease into it. Our method numbers split it KO/TKO 39%, submission 18%, decision 44%. The method model is as sure of that read as it gets.
4. Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore
Maiden picks Vicente Luque (60%) by submission over Tresean Gore. An upset call: the market leans the other way.
Most likely: submission 41% · decision 29% · KO/TKO 29%.
Graded: our pick missed. Gore won, and the miss stays on the record.
Vicente Luque, 60% to win, and that is the call. That is the thin end of a call, and we will say so. How it ends most often in our read: submission, at 41%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 29%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Vicente Luque anyway.
A submission is the most likely method for this three-round bout on Saturday, 10 PM ET. The model has medium confidence in that outcome. Vicente Luque carries a 41% submission rate, while the knockout rate sits at 29%. Tresean Gore faces a fight with a 29% distance probability. This non-headliner is unlikely to go to the judges.
5. Jalin Turner vs Kauê Fernandes
Maiden picks Jalin Turner (60%) by KO/TKO over Kauê Fernandes. An upset call: the market leans the other way.
Most likely: KO/TKO 48% · decision 32% · submission 20%.
Graded: our pick landed. Turner won.
Our number here is Jalin Turner at 60%. That is the thin end of a call, and we will say so. The likeliest ending is a KO/TKO at 48%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 32%. Jalin Turner is the pick for this three-round bout on Saturday, 10 PM ET. A knockout sits at 48%, while a submission is a 20% chance. Turner and Kauê Fernandes have a 32% chance to go the distance, meaning the judges will likely stay out of it.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry?
- Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 9 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
- Where does Maiden disagree with the market at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry?
- Neil Magny against Ramiz Brahimaj. The market leans the other way, and our number stands anyway. If it misses, the miss stays on the record.
Get the free ebook + tomorrow's picks
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.
Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.