The five fights worth watching at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Who wins, how each one likely ends, and the call we make loudest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
Since this preview was published, 1 of the 5 bouts has been scrubbed from the card. The write-ups stay below, marked.
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 on Saturday, September 19 carries 8 fights with a published number on them, and five are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Joshua Van at 74% to beat Alexandre Pantoja. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 is on the full card.
1. Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja, the main event
Maiden picks Joshua Van (74%) by decision over Alexandre Pantoja.
Most likely: decision 54% · KO/TKO 28% · submission 18%.
Our number here is Joshua Van at 74%. That is roughly two times in three. The likeliest ending is a decision at 54%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 54%.
Joshua Van takes the headliner slot on Saturday, 11:15 PM ET in a five-round bout against Alexandre Pantoja. The method model is as sure of its read as it gets. Van has a 28% chance to finish by knockout, while the submission rate sits at 18%. This schedule slot promises a long battle where the judges will likely decide the winner.
2. Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy, the main event
Maiden picks Arman Tsarukyan (71%) by KO/TKO over Mauricio Ruffy.
Most likely: KO/TKO 42% · decision 36% · submission 21%.
Our number here is Arman Tsarukyan at 71%. That is roughly two times in three. The likeliest ending is a KO/TKO at 42%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 36%.
Arman Tsarukyan and Mauricio Ruffy headline this five-round bout on Saturday, 10:45 PM ET. The model has a moderate level of certainty that a knockout or technical knockout is the most probable outcome. Tsarukyan has a 21% chance to secure a submission. There is a 36% chance the fight goes the distance, meaning the judges decide the winner.
3. Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega
Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega
This bout has been scrubbed from the card since this preview was published.
Renato Moicano, 58% to win, and that is the call. That is closer to even than the pick makes it sound. How it ends most often in our read: submission, at 34%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 40%.
The method model is as sure of that read as it gets. Renato Moicano and Brian Ortega are scheduled for a three-round bout on Saturday, 9:45 PM ET. A submission is the likeliest outcome, but a knockout sits at 26% if the fight stays standing. The judges decide this one 40% of the time.
4. Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain
Maiden picks Charles Jourdain (54%) by decision over Marlon Vera.
Most likely: decision 62% · KO/TKO 19% · submission 19%.
Charles Jourdain, 54% to win, and that is the call. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. How it ends most often in our read: decision, at 62%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 62%.
Charles Jourdain and Marlon Vera are scheduled for a three-round bout on Saturday, 8:15 PM ET. The method model is highly confident that the judges decide this one. If a finish does occur, the probability splits evenly. Jourdain and Vera each carry a 19% chance to end the fight by knockout, matching the 19% chance for a submission.
5. Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira
Maiden picks Edmen Shahbazyan (66%) by KO/TKO over Brunno Ferreira.
Most likely: KO/TKO 53% · decision 32% · submission 15%.
Our number here is Edmen Shahbazyan at 66%. That is a clear lean rather than a certainty. The likeliest ending is a KO/TKO at 53%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 32%.
The method model is as sure of that read as it gets. Edmen Shahbazyan has a 15% chance to find a submission, while the chance of a decision sits at 32%. This three-round bout starts Saturday, 6:15 PM ET. It is a non-headliner that promises to end early, making it a strong reason to tune in before the main card.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2?
- Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 8 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
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Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.