The five fights worth your Friday at UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Who wins, how it ends, and where our numbers are surest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang on Friday, October 2 carries 5 fights with a published number on them, and five are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Natalia Silva at 75% to beat Wang Cong. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC 332: Silva vs Wang is on the full card.
1. Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong, the main event
Maiden picks Natalia Silva (75%) by decision over Wang Cong.
Most likely: decision 79% · KO/TKO 11% · submission 10%.
Graded: our pick landed. Silva won.
Our number here is Natalia Silva at 75%. That is roughly three times in four. The likeliest ending is a decision at 79%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 79%.
Natalia Silva and Wang Cong headline this five-round bout on Saturday, 12:30 AM ET. The method model has a medium level of certainty that the judges decide the outcome. Silva has an 11% chance to finish by knockout, while the submission sits at 10%. Expect a long battle in the cage where the final bell is the most likely result.
2. Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott
Maiden picks Payton Talbott (56%) by decision over Deiveson Figueiredo.
Most likely: decision 66% · submission 18% · KO/TKO 16%.
Graded: our pick landed. Talbott won.
Our number here is Payton Talbott at 56%. That is barely a lean, and the honest read is that this is close to even. The likeliest ending is a decision at 66%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 66%.
Payton Talbott is the pick for this three-round bout on Saturday, 9 PM ET. The method model has only moderate certainty, but it points to a decision. A knockout sits at 16% and a submission is at 18%. Deiveson Figueiredo is the opponent on a card where this fight is not the headliner.
3. King Green vs Esteban Ribovics
Maiden picks Esteban Ribovics (51%) by decision over King Green.
Most likely: decision 59% · KO/TKO 25% · submission 16%.
Graded: our pick landed. Ribovics won.
Esteban Ribovics at 51% is where the desk lands. That is barely a lean, and the honest read is that this is close to even. The likeliest ending is a decision at 59%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 59%.
Esteban Ribovics has a 25% chance to end this three-round bout by knockout, while the submission sits at 16%. The model has only moderate certainty in the decision finish. This is not a headliner on the card, but the close numbers suggest a competitive scrap for the cage on Friday, 8 PM ET when Ribovics meets King Green.
4. Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev
Maiden picks Ismail Naurdiev (50%) by decision over Marvin Vettori.
Most likely: decision 69% · KO/TKO 22% · submission 10%.
Graded: our pick landed. Naurdiev won.
Our number here is Ismail Naurdiev at 50%. That is barely a lean, and the honest read is that this is close to even. The likeliest ending is a decision at 69%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 69%.
The method model has only moderate certainty in how this three-round bout ends. A knockout sits at 22% while a submission is a thin 10% possibility. Marvin Vettori and Naurdiev are likely to go the distance. This is not the headliner, but the judges will probably decide the winner.
5. Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov
Maiden picks Ateba Gautier (73%) by KO/TKO over Roman Kopylov.
Most likely: KO/TKO 50% · decision 41% · submission 9%.
Graded: our pick missed. Kopylov won, and the miss stays on the record.
Our number here is Ateba Gautier at 73%. That is roughly two times in three. The likeliest ending is a KO/TKO at 50%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 40%.
Ateba Gautier is the pick to win this three-round bout. The model has moderate faith that a knockout or technical knockout is the path to victory. Gautier has a 9% chance to find a submission. Roman Kopylov must survive a heavy finish, as the chance of the fight going the distance sits at 40%.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang?
- Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 5 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
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Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.