The three fights worth watching at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Who wins, how each one likely ends, and the call we make loudest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev on Saturday, October 24 carries 3 fights with a published number on them, and three are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Azamat Murzakanov at 55% to beat Dominick Reyes. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev is on the full card.
1. Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili, the main event
Maiden picks Petr Yan (55%) by decision over Merab Dvalishvili.
Most likely: decision 83% · KO/TKO 9% · submission 8%.
Graded: our pick landed. Yan won.
Our number here is Petr Yan at 55%. That is barely a lean, and the honest read is that this is close to even. The likeliest ending is a decision at 83%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 83%.
Decision logic dominates this five-round headliner. The method model is as sure of that read as it gets, placing the knockout chance at 9% and the submission chance at 8%. Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili project for a long grind where the finish rarely comes early.
2. Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes
Maiden picks Azamat Murzakanov (55%) by KO/TKO over Dominick Reyes.
Most likely: KO/TKO 69% · decision 26% · submission 5%.
Graded: our pick missed. Reyes won, and the miss stays on the record.
We make it Azamat Murzakanov, 55% to win. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 69%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 26%.
Azamat Murzakanov versus Dominick Reyes is a three-round bout that sits on the Saturday, 10 AM ET card. The knockout is the primary driver, with a 69% shot to end inside the distance compared to a 5% submission rate. The method model holds a moderate read on this split, projecting a 26% distance rate if Reyes survives the initial exchanges.
3. Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev
Maiden picks Nurullo Aliev (51%) by decision over Grant Dawson. An upset call: the market leans the other way.
Most likely: decision 60% · KO/TKO 21% · submission 20%.
Graded: our pick missed. Dawson won, and the miss stays on the record.
We make it Nurullo Aliev, 51% to win. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. How it ends most often in our read: decision, at 60%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 60%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Nurullo Aliev anyway.
A knockout split sits at 21%, while submissions account for 20%. The desk reads a decision as the clear leader, though our confidence in the specific finish remains moderate. Expect this three-round fight to go the long distance on Saturday, 10 AM ET, with Nurullo Aliev and Grant Dawson grinding out a tight sweat.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev?
- Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 3 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
- Where does Maiden disagree with the market at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev?
- Nurullo Aliev against Grant Dawson. The market leans the other way, and our number stands anyway. If it misses, the miss stays on the record.
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Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.