The four fights worth watching at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
Who wins, how each one likely ends, and the call we make loudest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady on Saturday, November 7 carries 4 fights with a published number on them, and four are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Tatiana Suarez at 72% to beat Virna Jandiroba. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brady is on the full card.
1. Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Johnny Walker
Maiden picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta (61%) by KO/TKO over Johnny Walker.
Most likely: KO/TKO 59% · decision 37% · submission 4%.
We make it Waldo Cortes-Acosta, 61% to win. That is closer to even than the pick makes it sound. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 59%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 37%.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta brings heavy stoppage threat to this three-round bout, with the method model holding high conviction in a knockout finish. A knockout or technical knockout leads all outcomes at 59%, while a submission lands at just 4%. The chance of seeing the distance sits at 37%.
2. Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba
Maiden picks Tatiana Suarez (72%) by decision over Virna Jandiroba.
Most likely: decision 65% · submission 32% · KO/TKO 3%.
Tatiana Suarez at 72% is where the desk lands. That is roughly two times in three. The likeliest ending is a decision at 65%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 65%.
A submission lands at 32%, while a knockout sits at just 3%. The method model is as sure of that read as it gets for this three-round bout. Tatiana Suarez and Virna Jandiroba carry a clear path to the scorecard, leaving fans to watch for a grapple-heavy contest on Saturday, 8 PM ET.
3. Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith
Maiden picks Elijah Smith (71%) by decision over Davey Grant.
Most likely: decision 63% · submission 23% · KO/TKO 13%.
We make it Elijah Smith, 71% to win. That is two wins in every three, played out often enough. How it ends most often in our read: decision, at 63%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 63%.
The method split points heavily away from a quick finish in this three-round bout. Submissions land 23% of the time, while knockout finishes sit low at 13%. Davey Grant and Elijah Smith look primed for a long night, though the method model holds only a moderate level of certainty in the final outcome.
4. Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes
Maiden picks Karine Silva (61%) by decision over Gabriella Fernandes.
Most likely: decision 72% · submission 23% · KO/TKO 5%.
Karine Silva at 61% is where the desk lands. That is closer to even than the pick makes it sound. The likeliest ending is a decision at 72%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 72%.
A submission finish sits at 23%, while a knock-out landing carries a 5% chance. The model shows moderate certainty in this path, reading the three-round scheduled fight as a extended grind rather than a quick stoppage. Gabriella Fernandes must work against these metrics on Saturday, 5 PM ET.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady?
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Johnny Walker is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 4 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
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Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.