The five fights worth watching at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Who wins, how each one likely ends, and the call we make loudest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues on Friday, August 21 carries 5 fights with a published number on them, and five are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Reinier de Ridder at 70% to beat Roman Dolidze. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues is on the full card.
1. Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues, the main event
Maiden picks Anthony Hernandez (67%) by KO/TKO over Gregory Rodrigues.
Most likely: KO/TKO 46% · decision 29% · submission 25%.
Graded: our pick missed. Rodrigues won, and the miss stays on the record.
Our number here is Anthony Hernandez at 67%. That is a clear lean rather than a certainty. The likeliest ending is a KO/TKO at 46%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 29%. Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues meet in a five-round headliner on Saturday, 9 PM ET.
2. Nasrat Haqparast vs Chris Padilla
Maiden picks Chris Padilla (51%) by decision over Nasrat Haqparast.
Most likely: decision 59% · KO/TKO 31% · submission 10%.
Graded: our pick landed. Padilla won.
Chris Padilla, 51% to win, and that is the call. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. How it ends most often in our read: decision, at 59%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 59%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Chris Padilla anyway.
A decision is the most likely method for this three-round bout on Saturday, 5 PM ET. The model has medium confidence in that outcome, with a 59% chance the fight goes the distance. Nasrat Haqparast and Chris Padilla carry a 31% chance of a knockout and a 10% chance of a submission. Watch for the judges to settle this non-headliner.
3. Marquel Mederos vs Mason Jones
Maiden picks Mason Jones (51%) by decision over Marquel Mederos.
Most likely: decision 67% · KO/TKO 24% · submission 9%.
Graded: our pick missed. Mederos won, and the miss stays on the record.
Our number here is Mason Jones at 51%. That is barely a lean, and the honest read is that this is close to even. The likeliest ending is a decision at 67%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 67%. This three-round bout on Saturday, 5 PM ET has a 24% chance of a knockout and a 9% chance of a submission. Marquel Mederos and Mason Jones are in a coin flip where the judges will likely decide the winner.
4. Shamil Gaziev vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
Maiden picks Shamil Gaziev (52%) by KO/TKO over Kennedy Nzechukwu.
Most likely: KO/TKO 65% · decision 28% · submission 7%.
Graded: our pick landed. Gaziev won.
Shamil Gaziev, 52% to win, and that is the call. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 65%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 28%.
Three rounds, so nobody gets to ease into it. Our method numbers split it KO/TKO 65%, submission 7%, decision 28%. The method read is a lean, not a certainty, and we say so.
5. Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze
Maiden picks Reinier de Ridder (70%) by KO/TKO over Roman Dolidze.
Most likely: decision 44% · KO/TKO 32% · submission 24%.
Graded: our pick landed. Ridder won.
Reinier de Ridder, 70% to win, and that is the call. That is two wins in every three, played out often enough. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 32%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 44%. Reinier de Ridder meets Roman Dolidze in a three-round bout scheduled for Friday, 8 PM ET. A knockout finish sits at 32%, while a submission holds a 24% chance. There is a 44% chance the fight goes the distance, matching the 44% probability of a decision.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues?
- Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 5 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
- Where does Maiden disagree with the market at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues?
- Chris Padilla against Nasrat Haqparast. The market leans the other way, and our number stands anyway. If it misses, the miss stays on the record.
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Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.