The five fights worth watching at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Who wins, how each one likely ends, and the call we make loudest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
Since this preview was published, 1 of the 5 bouts has been scrubbed from the card. The write-ups stay below, marked.
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse on Saturday, September 5 carries 5 fights with a published number on them, and five are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Klaudia Syguła at 71% to beat Nora Cornolle. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse is on the full card.
1. Modestas Bukauskas vs Oumar Sy
Maiden picks Modestas Bukauskas (52%) by KO/TKO over Oumar Sy. An upset call: the market leans the other way.
Most likely: KO/TKO 46% · decision 40% · submission 14%.
We make it Modestas Bukauskas, 52% to win. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 46%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 40%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Modestas Bukauskas anyway.
Modestas Bukauskas is most likely to end this three-round bout by KO/TKO. Our method model has only moderate confidence in that result, with the knockout rate sitting at 46%. A submission holds a 14% chance, while the likelihood of the fight going the distance is 40%. Oumar Sy must navigate these dangers on Saturday, 12 PM ET.
2. Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto
Maiden picks Mario Pinto (58%) by KO/TKO over Ryan Spann.
Most likely: KO/TKO 54% · decision 32% · submission 13%.
We make it Mario Pinto, 58% to win. That is closer to even than the pick makes it sound. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 54%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 32%.
Mario Pinto is the pick in this three-round bout on Saturday, 12 PM ET. The model has only moderate certainty about how the fight ends, but it points to a knockout. We see a KO/TKO as the most likely method at 54%. Ryan Spann has a 13% chance to find a submission, while the likelihood of the fight going the distance sits at 32%.
3. Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charriere
Maiden picks Felipe Lima (62%) by decision over Morgan Charriere.
Most likely: decision 50% · KO/TKO 36% · submission 14%.
Our number here is Felipe Lima at 62%. That is a clear lean rather than a certainty. The likeliest ending is a decision at 50%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 50%.
Felipe Lima has a 36% chance to finish by knockout, while the submission sits at 14%. The model has only moderate certainty in the decision finish for this three-round bout. Morgan Charriere stands in the way on Saturday, 12 PM ET. This non-headliner offers a coin flip on whether the judges get called in at all.
4. Nathaniel Wood vs Mairon Santos
Nathaniel Wood vs Mairon Santos
This bout has been scrubbed from the card since this preview was published.
Mairon Santos at 54% is where the desk lands. That is barely a lean, and the honest read is that this is close to even. The likeliest ending is a decision at 73%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 73%.
The method model has a moderate level of certainty that the judges decide this three-round bout. Nathaniel Wood and Santos are expected to go the distance, with a knockout chance at 21% and a submission finish down at 7%. This Saturday, 12 PM ET matchup is a slow burn where the final bell is the expected outcome.
5. Klaudia Syguła vs Nora Cornolle
Maiden picks Klaudia Syguła (71%) by decision over Nora Cornolle. An upset call: the market leans the other way.
Most likely: decision 74% · submission 18% · KO/TKO 8%.
Klaudia Syguła, 71% to win, and that is the call. That is two wins in every three, played out often enough. How it ends most often in our read: decision, at 74%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 74%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Klaudia Syguła anyway.
The three-round bout is most likely to end in a decision. The method model has a medium level of confidence in that outcome, with a 74% chance the fight goes the distance. Syguła has an 18% chance to find a submission, while the probability of a knockout finish sits at 8% against Nora Cornolle on Saturday, 12 PM ET.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse?
- Modestas Bukauskas vs Oumar Sy is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 5 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
- Where does Maiden disagree with the market at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse?
- Modestas Bukauskas against Oumar Sy. The market leans the other way, and our number stands anyway. If it misses, the miss stays on the record.
Get the free ebook + tomorrow's picks
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.
Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.