The five fights worth your Friday at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Who wins, how it ends, and where our numbers are surest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
Since this preview was published, 1 of the 1 bouts has been scrubbed from the card. The write-ups stay below, marked.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan on Friday, October 30 carries 5 fights with a published number on them, and five are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Azamat Bekoev at 68% to beat Andre Petroski. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan is on the full card.
3. Azamat Bekoev vs Andre Petroski
Azamat Bekoev vs Andre Petroski
This bout has been scrubbed from the card since this preview was published.
Azamat Bekoev at 68% is where the desk lands. That is roughly two times in three. The likeliest ending is a KO/TKO at 48%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 40%.
A knockout is the dominant finish on the board, leaving submissions as a distant 12% alternative. Bekoev and Andre Petroski are booked for a three-round bout on the card starting Friday, 8 PM ET. The method model holds a medium level of confidence in this stoppage call, with a going the distance probability sitting at 40%.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan?
- Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 5 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
- Where does Maiden disagree with the market at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan?
- Talita Alencar against Piera Rodriguez. The market leans the other way, and our number stands anyway. If it misses, the miss stays on the record.
Get the free ebook + tomorrow's picks
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.
Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.