The three fights worth watching at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Who wins, how each one likely ends, and the call we make loudest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song on Saturday, August 29 carries 3 fights with a published number on them, and three are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Denise Gomes at 73% to beat Yan Xiaonan. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song is on the full card.
1. Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong, the main event
Maiden picks Umar Nurmagomedov (69%) by decision over Song Yadong.
Most likely: decision 72% · KO/TKO 17% · submission 12%.
Graded: our pick missed. Yadong won, and the miss stays on the record.
Our number here is Umar Nurmagomedov at 69%. That is roughly two times in three. The likeliest ending is a decision at 72%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 72%.
Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong headline this five-round bout on Saturday, 8:45 AM ET. The method model is as sure of its read as it gets. A knockout lands 17% of the time, while a submission sits at 12%. Nurmagomedov is the pick for a fight that likely goes the distance.
2. Sean Woodson vs Jack Jenkins
Maiden picks Sean Woodson (60%) by decision over Jack Jenkins.
Most likely: decision 66% · KO/TKO 28% · submission 6%.
Graded: our pick landed. Woodson won.
We make it Sean Woodson, 60% to win. That is the thin end of a call, and we will say so. How it ends most often in our read: decision, at 66%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 66%.
Sean Woodson has a 28% chance to end this three-round bout by knockout, while the submission rate sits at 6%. Our method model has only moderate certainty in how the fight concludes. The numbers point to the judges, but Jenkins can force a different ending if he disrupts the pace on Saturday, 6 AM ET.
3. Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan
Maiden picks Denise Gomes (73%) by decision over Yan Xiaonan. An upset call: the market leans the other way.
Most likely: decision 82% · KO/TKO 11% · submission 7%.
Graded: our pick landed. Gomes won.
Denise Gomes, 73% to win, and that is the call. That is two wins in every three, played out often enough. How it ends most often in our read: decision, at 82%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 82%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Denise Gomes anyway.
Denise Gomes and Yan Xiaonan are scheduled for a three-round bout on Saturday, 6 AM ET. The method model is as sure of its read as it gets, pointing to a decision as the most likely outcome. Gomes has an 11% chance to finish by knockout, while the submission sits at 7%. Expect this fight to go the distance.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song?
- Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 3 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
- Where does Maiden disagree with the market at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song?
- Denise Gomes against Yan Xiaonan. The market leans the other way, and our number stands anyway. If it misses, the miss stays on the record.
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Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.