The five fights worth watching at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Who wins, how each one likely ends, and the call we make loudest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos on Saturday, September 26 carries 6 fights with a published number on them, and five are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Yazmin Jauregui at 72% to beat Vanessa Demopoulos. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos is on the full card.
1. Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr, the main event
Maiden picks Raul Rosas Jr (66%) by decision over Raoni Barcelos.
Most likely: decision 70% · submission 18% · KO/TKO 12%.
Graded: our pick landed. Jr won.
Raul Rosas Jr at 66% is where the desk lands. That is a clear lean rather than a certainty. The likeliest ending is a decision at 70%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 70%.
Raul Rosas Jr has an 18% chance to find a submission, while a knockout sits at 12%. The model has only moderate certainty about how this five-round headliner ends. Raoni Barcelos must survive a fight that likely goes the distance. This Saturday, 3 PM ET slot offers a long look at Rosas Jr in the cage.
2. Ricky Simon vs Montel Jackson
Maiden picks Ricky Simon (53%) by decision over Montel Jackson. An upset call: the market leans the other way.
Most likely: decision 71% · KO/TKO 18% · submission 11%.
Graded: our pick missed. Jackson won, and the miss stays on the record.
We make it Ricky Simon, 53% to win. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. How it ends most often in our read: decision, at 71%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 71%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Ricky Simon anyway.
Ricky Simon and Montel Jackson are scheduled for a three-round bout on Saturday, 3 PM ET. The method model is highly confident that the judges decide this fight. A knockout finish sits at 18%, while the submission rate is lower at 11%. Fans deciding whether to watch can expect a grinding battle that goes the distance.
3. Robert Bryczek vs Rodolfo Vieira
Maiden picks Robert Bryczek (58%) by KO/TKO over Rodolfo Vieira. An upset call: the market leans the other way.
Most likely: decision 39% · KO/TKO 36% · submission 24%.
Graded: our pick missed. Vieira won, and the miss stays on the record.
Robert Bryczek at 58% is where the desk lands. That is a little better than a coin flip. The likeliest ending is a KO/TKO at 36%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 39%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Robert Bryczek anyway.
A knockout is the most likely outcome on Saturday, 3 PM ET. Robert Bryczek has a 36% chance to end this three-round bout by KO/TKO. A submission sits at 24%, while the chance of a decision is 39%. The model has only a medium level of certainty about this specific method split. Vieira will try to survive the distance, which also stands at 39%.
4. Rinya Nakamura vs Brady Hiestand
Maiden picks Brady Hiestand (55%) by decision over Rinya Nakamura. An upset call: the market leans the other way.
Most likely: decision 62% · KO/TKO 21% · submission 17%.
Graded: our pick landed. Hiestand won.
Brady Hiestand at 55% is where the desk lands. That is barely a lean, and the honest read is that this is close to even. The likeliest ending is a decision at 62%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 62%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Brady Hiestand anyway.
A decision is the most likely method for Brady Hiestand, though the model holds only medium confidence in that outcome. The three-round bout has a 21% chance to end by knockout and a 17% chance to end by submission. Hiestand faces Rinya Nakamura on Saturday, 3 PM ET, in a matchup where the judges are expected to decide the winner.
5. Yazmin Jauregui vs Vanessa Demopoulos
Maiden picks Yazmin Jauregui (72%) by decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
Most likely: decision 79% · submission 15% · KO/TKO 6%.
Graded: our pick landed. Jauregui won.
We make it Yazmin Jauregui, 72% to win. That is two wins in every three, played out often enough. How it ends most often in our read: decision, at 79%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 79%.
The judges will likely decide this three-round bout. Our method model has a medium level of certainty that a decision is the most likely outcome. Yazmin Jauregui has a 6% chance to win by knockout, while the submission sits at 15%. Vanessa Demopoulos will try to beat the 79% chance that this fight goes the distance on Saturday, 3 PM ET.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos?
- Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 6 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
- Where does Maiden disagree with the market at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos?
- Ricky Simon against Montel Jackson. The market leans the other way, and our number stands anyway. If it misses, the miss stays on the record.
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Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.