Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 10, 2026
Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers
Kickoff
73%
Auburn Tigers, 73% to win. We project them by 9.9.
Auburn Tigers at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
9.9
50.0
70-75%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance Auburn Tigers win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 73%.
| Auburn Tigers | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 94 | 95 | 98 | 100 | |
| Up 10 | 89 | 90 | 94 | 97 | |
| Up 7 | 85 | 85 | 88 | 92 | |
| Up 3 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 77 | |
| Tied | 73 | 70 | 67 | 62 | 59 |
| Down 3 | 62 | 57 | 47 | 39 | |
| Down 7 | 51 | 43 | 29 | 17 | |
| Down 10 | 43 | 33 | 18 | 7 | |
| Down 14 | 32 | 22 | 8 | 2 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 73%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 73% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 43% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
- Up 14 with 8:00 left in Q4, this call reaches 100%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.
From 14 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
309-90 on graded college football picks (77%).