Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 10, 2026
Ball State Cardinals at Massachusetts Minutemen
Kickoff
61%
Massachusetts Minutemen, 61% to win. We project them by 4.5.
Massachusetts Minutemen at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
4.5
51.6
60-65%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance Massachusetts Minutemen win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 61%.
| Massachusetts Minutemen | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 89 | 92 | 97 | 99 | |
| Up 10 | 83 | 86 | 91 | 96 | |
| Up 7 | 77 | 79 | 84 | 90 | |
| Up 3 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 73 | |
| Tied | 61 | 59 | 58 | 56 | 54 |
| Down 3 | 51 | 47 | 41 | 34 | |
| Down 7 | 40 | 34 | 23 | 14 | |
| Down 10 | 32 | 25 | 14 | 6 | |
| Down 14 | 23 | 15 | 6 | 1 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 61%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 61% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 32% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
- Up 14 at the end of Q1, this call reaches 89%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.
From 10 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
309-90 on graded college football picks (77%).