Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks

Kickoff Sep 19, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC

Model v4

81%

Georgia Bulldogs, 81% to win. We project them by 14.8.

Georgia Bulldogs on the road. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.

Georgia Bulldogs by

14.8

Projected total

57.4

Confidence band

80-85%

Where the number can go: the shaded band covers the middle 80% of game paths, the solid line is the expected one, and the flat dashes are the published call.

The scenario grid

Numbers are the percent chance Georgia Bulldogs win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 81%.

Georgia Bulldogs	Kickoff	End Q1	Half	End Q3	8:00 Q4
Up 14		96	96	98	100
Up 10		93	93	95	97
Up 7		89	89	90	93
Up 3		83	81	79	79
Tied	81	78	73	67	63
Down 3		71	64	53	43
Down 7		61	51	35	21
Down 10		53	41	23	9
Down 14		42	29	11	2

Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 81%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.

The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.

States that change the read

The 81% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.

Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 53% and the pre-game read no longer applies.

From 14 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.

The record behind the number

66-9 on graded college football picks (88%).