Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 7, 2026
Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers
Kickoff
76%
LSU Tigers, 76% to win. We project them by 11.6.
LSU Tigers at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
11.6
60.0
75-80%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance LSU Tigers win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 76%.
| LSU Tigers | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 94 | 95 | 98 | 99 | |
| Up 10 | 90 | 91 | 94 | 97 | |
| Up 7 | 86 | 86 | 88 | 92 | |
| Up 3 | 79 | 77 | 76 | 77 | |
| Tied | 76 | 73 | 69 | 64 | 60 |
| Down 3 | 65 | 59 | 50 | 41 | |
| Down 7 | 55 | 46 | 31 | 19 | |
| Down 10 | 46 | 36 | 20 | 8 | |
| Down 14 | 36 | 24 | 9 | 2 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 76%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 76% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 46% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
From 14 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
215-49 on graded college football picks (81%).