North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers

Kickoff Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC

Model v4

78%

Pittsburgh Panthers, 78% to win. We project them by 12.8.

Pittsburgh Panthers at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.

Pittsburgh Panthers by

12.8

Projected total

49.4

Confidence band

75-80%

Where the number can go: the shaded band covers the middle 80% of game paths, the solid line is the expected one, and the flat dashes are the published call.

The scenario grid

Numbers are the percent chance Pittsburgh Panthers win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 78%.

Pittsburgh Panthers	Kickoff	End Q1	Half	End Q3	8:00 Q4
Up 14		95	96	98	99
Up 10		91	92	94	97
Up 7		87	87	89	92
Up 3		81	79	77	78
Tied	78	75	70	65	61
Down 3		67	61	51	42
Down 7		57	48	33	19
Down 10		49	38	21	9
Down 14		38	26	10	2

Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 78%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.

The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.

States that change the read

The 78% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.

Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 49% and the pre-game read no longer applies.

From 14 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.

The record behind the number

185-35 on graded college football picks (84%).