Notre Dame Fighting Irish at BYU Cougars

Kickoff Oct 17, 2026, 11:30 PM UTC

Model v4

71%

Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 71% to win. We project them by 9.4.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish on the road. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish by

9.4

Projected total

52.9

Confidence band

70-75%

Where the number can go: the shaded band covers the middle 80% of game paths, the solid line is the expected one, and the flat dashes are the published call.

The scenario grid

Numbers are the percent chance Notre Dame Fighting Irish win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 71%.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish	Kickoff	End Q1	Half	End Q3	8:00 Q4
Up 14		93	94	97	99
Up 10		88	89	93	97
Up 7		83	84	87	91
Up 3		75	74	74	76
Tied	71	69	65	61	58
Down 3		61	56	47	39
Down 7		50	42	29	17
Down 10		42	33	18	8
Down 14		32	22	8	2

Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 71%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.

The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.

States that change the read

The 71% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.

Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 42% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
Up 14 at the end of Q3, this call reaches 97%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.

From 14 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.

The record behind the number

215-49 on graded college football picks (81%).