Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes

Kickoff Oct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC

Model v4

69%

Ohio State Buckeyes, 69% to win. We project them by 8.3.

Ohio State Buckeyes on the road. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.

Ohio State Buckeyes by

8.3

Projected total

44.1

Confidence band

65-70%

Where the number can go: the shaded band covers the middle 80% of game paths, the solid line is the expected one, and the flat dashes are the published call.

The scenario grid

Numbers are the percent chance Ohio State Buckeyes win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 69%.

Ohio State Buckeyes	Kickoff	End Q1	Half	End Q3	8:00 Q4
Up 14		92	94	97	99
Up 10		87	88	93	97
Up 7		82	83	86	91
Up 3		74	73	73	75
Tied	69	67	64	60	57
Down 3		59	54	46	38
Down 7		48	40	28	17
Down 10		40	31	17	7
Down 14		30	20	8	2

Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 69%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.

The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.

States that change the read

The 69% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.

Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 40% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
Up 14 at the end of Q3, this call reaches 97%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.

From 14 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.

The record behind the number

309-90 on graded college football picks (77%).