Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 10, 2026
Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers
Kickoff
56%
Texas Longhorns, 56% to win. We project them by 2.4.
Texas Longhorns on the road. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
2.4
46.5
55-60%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance Texas Longhorns win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 56%.
| Texas Longhorns | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 87 | 91 | 96 | 99 | |
| Up 10 | 80 | 84 | 91 | 96 | |
| Up 7 | 74 | 76 | 83 | 89 | |
| Up 3 | 63 | 64 | 67 | 71 | |
| Tied | 56 | 55 | 54 | 53 | 52 |
| Down 3 | 47 | 44 | 38 | 32 | |
| Down 7 | 36 | 31 | 21 | 13 | |
| Down 10 | 28 | 22 | 12 | 5 | |
| Down 14 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 56%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 56% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 28% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
- Up 14 at the end of Q1, this call reaches 87%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.
From 7 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
309-90 on graded college football picks (77%).