Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 6, 2026
Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners
Kickoff · Neutral site
69%
Texas Longhorns, 69% to win. We project them by 8.1.
Texas Longhorns on the road. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
8.1
41.1
65-70%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance Texas Longhorns win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 69%.
| Texas Longhorns | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 92 | 94 | 97 | 99 | |
| Up 10 | 87 | 88 | 92 | 97 | |
| Up 7 | 82 | 82 | 86 | 91 | |
| Up 3 | 73 | 72 | 73 | 75 | |
| Tied | 69 | 66 | 63 | 60 | 57 |
| Down 3 | 58 | 54 | 45 | 38 | |
| Down 7 | 47 | 40 | 28 | 17 | |
| Down 10 | 39 | 31 | 17 | 7 | |
| Down 14 | 29 | 20 | 8 | 2 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 69%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 69% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 39% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
- Up 14 at the half, this call reaches 94%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.
From 10 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
185-35 on graded college football picks (84%).