Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 4, 2026
Utah Utes at Iowa State Cyclones
Kickoff
64%
Utah Utes, 64% to win. We project them by 6.
Utah Utes on the road. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
6.0
51.2
60-65%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance Utah Utes win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 64%.
| Utah Utes | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 90 | 92 | 97 | 99 | |
| Up 10 | 84 | 86 | 91 | 96 | |
| Up 7 | 79 | 80 | 84 | 90 | |
| Up 3 | 70 | 69 | 70 | 73 | |
| Tied | 64 | 62 | 60 | 57 | 55 |
| Down 3 | 54 | 50 | 43 | 36 | |
| Down 7 | 43 | 37 | 26 | 16 | |
| Down 10 | 35 | 28 | 16 | 7 | |
| Down 14 | 26 | 18 | 7 | 2 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 64%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 64% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 35% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
- Up 14 at the end of Q1, this call reaches 90%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.
From 10 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
309-90 on graded college football picks (77%).