Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 7, 2026
Virginia Cavaliers at SMU Mustangs
Kickoff
66%
SMU Mustangs, 66% to win. We project them by 6.8.
SMU Mustangs at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
6.8
52.2
65-70%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance SMU Mustangs win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 66%.
| SMU Mustangs | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 90 | 93 | 97 | 99 | |
| Up 10 | 85 | 87 | 92 | 96 | |
| Up 7 | 80 | 81 | 85 | 90 | |
| Up 3 | 71 | 70 | 71 | 74 | |
| Tied | 66 | 64 | 61 | 58 | 56 |
| Down 3 | 56 | 51 | 44 | 37 | |
| Down 7 | 45 | 38 | 27 | 16 | |
| Down 10 | 37 | 29 | 16 | 7 | |
| Down 14 | 27 | 19 | 7 | 2 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 66%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 66% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 37% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
- Up 14 at the half, this call reaches 93%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.
From 10 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
215-49 on graded college football picks (81%).