Virginia Tech Hokies at SMU Mustangs

Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

Model v4

75%

SMU Mustangs, 75% to win. We project them by 11.1.

SMU Mustangs at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.

SMU Mustangs by

11.1

Projected total

55.5

Confidence band

75-80%

Where the number can go: the shaded band covers the middle 80% of game paths, the solid line is the expected one, and the flat dashes are the published call.

The scenario grid

Numbers are the percent chance SMU Mustangs win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 75%.

SMU Mustangs	Kickoff	End Q1	Half	End Q3	8:00 Q4
Up 14		94	96	98	100
Up 10		90	91	94	97
Up 7		86	86	89	92
Up 3		79	77	76	77
Tied	75	72	69	63	60
Down 3		65	59	49	40
Down 7		54	45	30	18
Down 10		45	35	19	8
Down 14		34	23	8	2

Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 75%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.

The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.

States that change the read

The 75% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.

Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 45% and the pre-game read no longer applies.

From 14 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.

The record behind the number

309-90 on graded college football picks (77%).