Who won Arkansas State vs Louisiana?

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns won 23-20. Maiden picked Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at 66% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 65% to 70% have won 35 of 51 college football games, 69%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Arkansas State vs Louisiana win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns hosting Arkansas State Red Wolves. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 5 · Oct 4, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 23, Arkansas State Red Wolves 20

Our pick landed: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns won 23-20. We had them at 66%.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, 66% to win. We project them by 6.8.

The numbers

Our pick	Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Chance they win	66%
Our projected spread (Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns)	-6.8
Our projected score (Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns first)	29-22
Projected total	50.7
Our picks at 65% to 70% confidence	35-16 (69%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns)	-5.5
Total	49.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 27, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Arkansas State vs Louisiana?: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns won 23-20. Maiden picked Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at 66% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 65% to 70% have won 35 of 51 college football games, 69%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Arkansas State vs Louisiana win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns hosting Arkansas State Red Wolves. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.