Who won Baylor vs Arizona State?

Baylor Bears won 55-19. Maiden picked Arizona State Sun Devils at 60% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 55% to 60% have won 32 of 48 college football games, 67%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Baylor vs Arizona State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Arizona State Sun Devils hosting Baylor Bears. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 5 · Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC

Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils — result and pick review

Share result

Result

✗ Pick wrong

Arizona State Sun Devils 19, Baylor Bears 55

Our pick missed: Arizona State Sun Devils lost 19-55. We had them at 60%, and it stays on the record.

Arizona State Sun Devils, 60% to win. We project them by 4.1.

The numbers

Our pick	Arizona State Sun Devils
Chance they win	60%
Our projected spread (Arizona State Sun Devils)	-4.1
Our projected score (Arizona State Sun Devils first)	29-25
Projected total	54.1
Our picks at 55% to 60% confidence	32-16 (67%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Arizona State Sun Devils)	-3.5
Total	48.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 27, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

Tomorrow's free picks, by email

One email each morning with the day's free picks, before the games start. Our free beginner's guide comes with it. Unsubscribe anytime.

Frequently asked questions

Who won Baylor vs Arizona State?: Baylor Bears won 55-19. Maiden picked Arizona State Sun Devils at 60% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 55% to 60% have won 32 of 48 college football games, 67%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Baylor vs Arizona State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Arizona State Sun Devils hosting Baylor Bears. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.