Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State Cyclones — prediction and win probability

The numbers

The projected total is our model’s number, not a market’s. We grade the win probability, and it opens to everyone the moment this game is played.

Still to come today

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• Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
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Frequently asked questions

What is the projected total for Bowling Green vs Iowa State?

Our model projects 44.2 combined points. Maiden grades the win probability, not the total, and that win probability opens to everyone the moment this game is played.

Where does the Bowling Green vs Iowa State win probability come from?

We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Iowa State Cyclones hosting Bowling Green Falcons. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.