Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson Tide — prediction and win probability

The numbers

The projected total is our model’s number, not a market’s. We grade the win probability, and it opens to everyone the moment this game is played.

Still to come today

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• Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio State BuckeyesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
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• NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt CommodoresSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
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• Utah State Aggies at Utah UtesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati BearcatsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M AggiesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor BearsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Ball State Cardinals at Liberty FlamesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Stanford Cardinal at Duke Blue DevilsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina GamecocksSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Charlotte 49ers at App State MountaineersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic OwlsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• East Carolina Pirates at Old Dominion MonarchsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
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• Troy Trojans at Missouri TigersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
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• BYU Cougars at Colorado State RamsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
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• Fresno State Bulldogs at San José State SpartansSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA BruinsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page

Frequently asked questions

What is the projected total for Florida State vs Alabama?

Our model projects 52 combined points. Maiden grades the win probability, not the total, and that win probability opens to everyone the moment this game is played.

Where does the Florida State vs Alabama win probability come from?

We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Alabama Crimson Tide hosting Florida State Seminoles. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.