Who won Florida State vs Alabama?

Alabama Crimson Tide won 50-36. Maiden picked Alabama Crimson Tide at 87% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 85% to 90% have won 33 of 38 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Florida State vs Alabama win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Alabama Crimson Tide hosting Florida State Seminoles. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC

Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson Tide — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Alabama Crimson Tide 50, Florida State Seminoles 36

Our pick landed: Alabama Crimson Tide won 50-36. We had them at 87%.

Alabama Crimson Tide, 87% to win. We project them by 18.8.

The numbers

Our pick	Alabama Crimson Tide
Chance they win	87%
Our projected spread (Alabama Crimson Tide)	-18.8
Our projected score (Alabama Crimson Tide first)	35-17
Projected total	52
Our picks at 85% to 90% confidence	33-5 (87%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Alabama Crimson Tide)	-19.5
Total	50

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 13, 2026, 3:04 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Florida State vs Alabama?: Alabama Crimson Tide won 50-36. Maiden picked Alabama Crimson Tide at 87% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 85% to 90% have won 33 of 38 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Florida State vs Alabama win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Alabama Crimson Tide hosting Florida State Seminoles. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.