Who won Fresno State vs San José State?

Fresno State Bulldogs won 26-10. Maiden picked Fresno State Bulldogs at 67% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 65% to 70% have won 35 of 51 college football games, 69%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Fresno State vs San José State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with San José State Spartans hosting Fresno State Bulldogs. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 3 · Sep 20, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

Fresno State Bulldogs at San José State Spartans — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Fresno State Bulldogs 26, San José State Spartans 10

Our pick landed: Fresno State Bulldogs won 26-10. We had them at 67%.

Fresno State Bulldogs, 67% to win. We project them by 7.3.

The numbers

Our pick	Fresno State Bulldogs
Chance they win	67%
Our projected spread (Fresno State Bulldogs)	-7.3
Our projected score (Fresno State Bulldogs first)	29-21
Projected total	49.7
Our picks at 65% to 70% confidence	35-16 (69%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Fresno State Bulldogs)	-6.5
Total	50

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 13, 2026, 3:04 PM UTC · Updated Sep 13, 2026, 3:05 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Fresno State vs San José State?: Fresno State Bulldogs won 26-10. Maiden picked Fresno State Bulldogs at 67% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 65% to 70% have won 35 of 51 college football games, 69%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Fresno State vs San José State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with San José State Spartans hosting Fresno State Bulldogs. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.