Who won Fresno State vs Washington State?

Fresno State Bulldogs won 26-6. Maiden picked Washington State Cougars at 60% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 60% to 65% have won 41 of 62 college football games, 66%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Fresno State vs Washington State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Washington State Cougars hosting Fresno State Bulldogs. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 5 · Oct 4, 2026, 1:30 AM UTC

Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State Cougars — result and pick review

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Result

✗ Pick wrong

Washington State Cougars 6, Fresno State Bulldogs 26

Our pick missed: Washington State Cougars lost 6-26. We had them at 60%, and it stays on the record.

Washington State Cougars, 60% to win. We project them by 4.4.

The numbers

Our pick	Washington State Cougars
Chance they win	60%
Our projected spread (Washington State Cougars)	-4.4
Our projected score (Washington State Cougars first)	25-20
Projected total	44.9
Our picks at 60% to 65% confidence	41-21 (66%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Washington State Cougars)	-2.5
Total	44.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 27, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Fresno State vs Washington State?: Fresno State Bulldogs won 26-6. Maiden picked Washington State Cougars at 60% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 60% to 65% have won 41 of 62 college football games, 66%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Fresno State vs Washington State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Washington State Cougars hosting Fresno State Bulldogs. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.