Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red Raiders — prediction and win probability
Texas Tech Red Raiders, 81% to win. We project them by 15.
The numbers
| Our pick | Texas Tech Red Raiders |
| Chance they win | 81% |
| Our projected spread (Texas Tech Red Raiders) | -15 |
| Our projected score (Texas Tech Red Raiders first) | 34-19 |
| Projected total | 53.9 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Texas Tech Red Raiders) | -7.5 |
| Total | 52.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Other picks on the Week 3, 2026 board
- Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsFri, Sep 18 · Miami Hurricanes, 83% to win
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Delaware Blue HensSat, Sep 19 · Delaware Blue Hens, 60% to win
- Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany LionsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
- Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio State BuckeyesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
- Akron Zips at Minnesota Golden GophersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
- North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson TigersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
- Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State CyclonesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
- Tulane Green Wave at Kansas State WildcatsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
Prediction published Sep 13, 2026, 3:04 PM UTC
Open this game's sheet
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Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Houston vs Texas Tech?
- Maiden gives Texas Tech Red Raiders an 81% chance to beat Houston Cougars. That is our model's straight-up win probability, published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards, whichever way it goes.
- What is the projected score for Houston vs Texas Tech?
- Our model projects Texas Tech Red Raiders 34, Houston Cougars 19. The projected score and spread are supporting context only: the win probability is the published call, and it is the only number we are graded on.
- Where does the Houston vs Texas Tech win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Texas Tech Red Raiders hosting Houston Cougars. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.