James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs — we ran this one and left it alone
We are not publishing a call on this game.
Our model ran this game and came out a long way from where the betting market sits. We have measured what happens when we publish from that far apart, and it is the worst band we have: those calls lose more often than our confidence in them says they should. So we hold this one back rather than dress up a disagreement as an edge.
What that gate did to this week
Week 3, 2026 ran 57 games through the model. 49 cleared every gate and were published before kickoff. 8 did not, and this is one of them.
The calls that do clear get settled on the record either way: 66 of 75 college football picks correct so far, which is 88%. That number is what the gates are protecting, and it is the reason a game we are unsure about gets this page instead of a number.
Why we publish this at all
A short board is the honest one. Our model runs every game on the slate, and the ones that clear our gates get published before kickoff and graded afterwards — win or lose, on the same page. The rest get this.
We would rather tell you we looked and declined than leave a gap where a game should be. A missing page and a considered no are very different answers, and only one of them is true here.
Decision recorded Sep 18, 2026, 5:31 AM UTC
The games we did call
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Delaware Blue HensSat, Sep 19 · Delaware Blue Hens, 60% to win
- Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany LionsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
- Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio State BuckeyesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
- Akron Zips at Minnesota Golden GophersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
- North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson TigersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
- Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State CyclonesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
Tomorrow's board, before kickoff
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Frequently asked questions
- Who do you pick to win James Madison vs San Diego State?
- We do not have a pick on this game. Our model ran this game and came out a long way from where the betting market sits. We have measured what happens when we publish from that far apart, and it is the worst band we have: those calls lose more often than our confidence in them says they should. So we hold this one back rather than dress up a disagreement as an edge. Every game we do call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, win or lose.
- Will you publish a call before kickoff?
- Only if what we are looking at changes. This is not a placeholder for a pick we are still working on — it is the finished answer for this game unless the picture moves before kickoff.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.