Who won Marshall vs Missouri State?

Marshall Thundering Herd won 30-24. Maiden picked Marshall Thundering Herd at 57% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 55% to 60% have won 32 of 48 college football games, 67%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Marshall vs Missouri State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Missouri State Bears hosting Marshall Thundering Herd. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC

Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Marshall Thundering Herd 30, Missouri State Bears 24

Our pick landed: Marshall Thundering Herd won 30-24. We had them at 57%.

Marshall Thundering Herd, 57% to win. We project them by 3.

The numbers

Our pick	Marshall Thundering Herd
Chance they win	57%
Our projected spread (Marshall Thundering Herd)	-3
Our projected score (Marshall Thundering Herd first)	29-26
Projected total	55.7
Our picks at 55% to 60% confidence	32-16 (67%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Marshall Thundering Herd)	-4
Total	53.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 13, 2026, 3:04 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Marshall vs Missouri State?: Marshall Thundering Herd won 30-24. Maiden picked Marshall Thundering Herd at 57% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 55% to 60% have won 32 of 48 college football games, 67%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Marshall vs Missouri State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Missouri State Bears hosting Marshall Thundering Herd. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.