Who won Michigan State vs Wisconsin?

Wisconsin Badgers won 31-3. Maiden picked Wisconsin Badgers at 67% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 65% to 70% have won 35 of 51 college football games, 69%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Michigan State vs Wisconsin win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Wisconsin Badgers hosting Michigan State Spartans. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC

Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Wisconsin Badgers 31, Michigan State Spartans 3

Our pick landed: Wisconsin Badgers won 31-3. We had them at 67%.

Wisconsin Badgers, 67% to win. We project them by 7.5.

The numbers

Our pick	Wisconsin Badgers
Chance they win	67%
Our projected spread (Wisconsin Badgers)	-7.5
Our projected score (Wisconsin Badgers first)	25-18
Projected total	42.9
Our picks at 65% to 70% confidence	35-16 (69%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Wisconsin Badgers)	-9
Total	43.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 27, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Michigan State vs Wisconsin?: Wisconsin Badgers won 31-3. Maiden picked Wisconsin Badgers at 67% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 65% to 70% have won 35 of 51 college football games, 69%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Michigan State vs Wisconsin win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Wisconsin Badgers hosting Michigan State Spartans. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.