Who won NC State vs Vanderbilt?

Vanderbilt Commodores won 35-31. Maiden picked Vanderbilt Commodores at 72% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 70% to 75% have won 38 of 54 college football games, 70%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the NC State vs Vanderbilt win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Vanderbilt Commodores hosting NC State Wolfpack. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 4:45 PM UTC

NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Vanderbilt Commodores 35, NC State Wolfpack 31

Our pick landed: Vanderbilt Commodores won 35-31. We had them at 72%.

Vanderbilt Commodores, 72% to win. We project them by 9.8.

The numbers

Our pick	Vanderbilt Commodores
Chance they win	72%
Our projected spread (Vanderbilt Commodores)	-9.8
Our projected score (Vanderbilt Commodores first)	33-23
Projected total	56.7
Our picks at 70% to 75% confidence	38-16 (70%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Vanderbilt Commodores)	-3
Total	50.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 13, 2026, 3:04 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won NC State vs Vanderbilt?: Vanderbilt Commodores won 35-31. Maiden picked Vanderbilt Commodores at 72% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 70% to 75% have won 38 of 54 college football games, 70%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the NC State vs Vanderbilt win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Vanderbilt Commodores hosting NC State Wolfpack. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.