Who won Notre Dame vs North Carolina?

Notre Dame Fighting Irish won 37-26. Maiden picked Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 92% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 90% to 95% have won 31 of 33 college football games, 94%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Notre Dame vs North Carolina win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with North Carolina Tar Heels hosting Notre Dame Fighting Irish. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37, North Carolina Tar Heels 26

Our pick landed: Notre Dame Fighting Irish won 37-26. We had them at 92%.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 92% to win. We project them by 23.6.

The numbers

Our pick	Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Chance they win	92%
Our projected spread (Notre Dame Fighting Irish)	-23.6
Our projected score (Notre Dame Fighting Irish first)	36-12
Projected total	48.4
Our picks at 90% to 95% confidence	31-2 (94%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Notre Dame Fighting Irish)	-21
Total	46.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 27, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Notre Dame vs North Carolina?: Notre Dame Fighting Irish won 37-26. Maiden picked Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 92% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 90% to 95% have won 31 of 33 college football games, 94%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Notre Dame vs North Carolina win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with North Carolina Tar Heels hosting Notre Dame Fighting Irish. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.