Old Dominion Monarchs at App State Mountaineers — we have no call on this one

What the market says

That is the market’s number, not ours. Ours is the one we are withholding, and the reason above is the whole of what we will say about where it sits.

Where the two sides stand

Old Dominion are 1-4 this season and lost to Georgia State last time out. We published a number on four of those games, and two of the four landed.

App State are 3-1 this season and lost to NC State last time out. We published a number on three of those games, and two of the three landed.

What that gate did to this week

Week 6, 2026 ran 58 games through the model. 45 cleared every gate and were published before kickoff. 13 did not, and this is one of them.

The calls that do clear get settled on the record either way: 185 of 220 college football picks correct so far, which is 84%. That number is what the gates are protecting, and it is the reason a game we are unsure about gets this page instead of a number.

Our closest published calls, the band just above the floor, have landed 17 of 27 so far. The floor is where that band would stop beating a coin, and this game is under it.

What would change this before kickoff

Our number sits inside the band we do not publish from. It moves only when the inputs move: an injury report, a quarterback change, a line-up we did not have when we ran it. We re-run every game up to kickoff. If it clears the floor, this page becomes a pick page with the time of the call stamped on it. If it does not, this is our final answer on the game.

Decision recorded Oct 4, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

Why we publish this at all

A short board is the honest one. Our model runs every game on the slate, and the ones that clear our gates get published before kickoff and graded afterwards — win or lose, on the same page. The rest get this.

We would rather tell you we looked and declined than leave a gap where a game should be. A missing page and a considered no are very different answers, and only one of them is true here.

The games we did call

• Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSat, Oct 10 · Our pick: on the game page
• Tulane Green Wave at Army Black KnightsSat, Oct 10 · Our pick: on the game page
• Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersSat, Oct 10 · Our pick: on the game page
• North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersSat, Oct 10 · Pittsburgh Panthers, 78% to win
• Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia MountaineersSat, Oct 10 · Arizona Wildcats, 63% to win
• Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsSat, Oct 10 · Our pick: on the game page

Frequently asked questions

Who do you pick to win Old Dominion vs App State?

We do not have a pick on this game. Our model ran this game and landed too close to a coin flip to say anything useful. We publish a call only when it clears our confidence floor; under that we would be guessing, and a guess on the record is worth less than nothing. Every game we do call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, win or lose.

Will you publish a call before kickoff?

Only if what we are looking at changes. This is not a placeholder for a pick we are still working on — it is the finished answer for this game unless the picture moves before kickoff.

What does the betting market say about Old Dominion vs App State?

The market makes App State the favourite by one to two touchdowns (9.5 points), with a combined total of 47.5. That is the market's number, a consensus across books, not ours. Ours is the one we are withholding on this game.