Who won Purdue vs Illinois?

Purdue Boilermakers won 24-17. Maiden picked Illinois Fighting Illini at 85% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 80% to 85% have won 40 of 46 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Purdue vs Illinois win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Illinois Fighting Illini hosting Purdue Boilermakers. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC

Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini — result and pick review

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Result

✗ Pick wrong

Illinois Fighting Illini 17, Purdue Boilermakers 24

Our pick missed: Illinois Fighting Illini lost 17-24. We had them at 85%, and it stays on the record.

Illinois Fighting Illini, 85% to win. We project them by 17.4.

The numbers

Our pick	Illinois Fighting Illini
Chance they win	85%
Our projected spread (Illinois Fighting Illini)	-17.4
Our projected score (Illinois Fighting Illini first)	38-21
Projected total	58.9
Our picks at 80% to 85% confidence	40-6 (87%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Illinois Fighting Illini)	-9.5
Total	62

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 27, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Purdue vs Illinois?: Purdue Boilermakers won 24-17. Maiden picked Illinois Fighting Illini at 85% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 80% to 85% have won 40 of 46 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Purdue vs Illinois win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Illinois Fighting Illini hosting Purdue Boilermakers. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.