SMU Mustangs at Louisville Cardinals — prediction and win probability

The numbers

The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.

Still to come today

• Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Delaware Blue HensSat, Sep 19 · Delaware Blue Hens, 60% to win
• Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany LionsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio State BuckeyesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Akron Zips at Minnesota Golden GophersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson TigersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State CyclonesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Tulane Green Wave at Kansas State WildcatsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas RazorbacksSat, Sep 19 · Georgia Bulldogs, 81% to win
• Eastern Michigan Eagles at Wisconsin BadgersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt CommodoresSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Wyoming Cowboys at Central Michigan ChippewasSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Temple Owls at Toledo RocketsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• USC Trojans at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• UTEP Miners at Michigan WolverinesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Utah State Aggies at Utah UtesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati BearcatsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M AggiesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson TideSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor BearsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Ball State Cardinals at Liberty FlamesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Stanford Cardinal at Duke Blue DevilsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina GamecocksSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Charlotte 49ers at App State MountaineersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic OwlsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• East Carolina Pirates at Old Dominion MonarchsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State BearsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State GamecocksSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama JaguarsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Western Michigan Broncos at Rice OwlsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• UConn Huskies at Southern Miss Golden EaglesSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Georgia State Panthers at UCF KnightsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Troy Trojans at Missouri TigersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting IrishSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• West Virginia Mountaineers vs Virginia CavaliersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Colorado Buffaloes at Northwestern WildcatsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• BYU Cougars at Colorado State RamsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• New Mexico Lobos at Oklahoma SoonersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Kennesaw State Owls at Tennessee VolunteersSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin' CajunsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned FrogsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• UTSA Roadrunners at Texas LonghornsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• North Dakota State Bison at Sacramento State HornetsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Northern Illinois Huskies at Arizona WildcatsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Fresno State Bulldogs at San José State SpartansSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page
• Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA BruinsSat, Sep 19 · Our pick: on the game page

Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win SMU vs Louisville?

Maiden gives Louisville Cardinals a 56% chance to beat SMU Mustangs. That is our model's straight-up win probability, published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards, whichever way it goes.

What is the projected score for SMU vs Louisville?

Our model projects Louisville Cardinals 30, SMU Mustangs 27. The projected score and spread are supporting context only: the win probability is the published call, and it is the only number we are graded on.

Where does the SMU vs Louisville win probability come from?

We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Louisville Cardinals hosting SMU Mustangs. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.