Who won West Virginia vs Virginia?

West Virginia Mountaineers won 38-27. Maiden picked Virginia Cavaliers at 73% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 70% to 75% have won 38 of 54 college football games, 70%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the West Virginia vs Virginia win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for the neutral site, where neither team has home field. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 3 · Neutral site · Sep 19, 2026, 11:30 PM UTC

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Virginia Cavaliers — result and pick review

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Result

✗ Pick wrong

Virginia Cavaliers 27, West Virginia Mountaineers 38

Our pick missed: Virginia Cavaliers lost 27-38. We had them at 73%, and it stays on the record.

Virginia Cavaliers, 73% to win. We project them by 10.4.

The numbers

Our pick	Virginia Cavaliers
Chance they win	73%
Our projected spread (Virginia Cavaliers)	-10.4
Our projected score (Virginia Cavaliers first)	31-21
Projected total	51.9
Our picks at 70% to 75% confidence	38-16 (70%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Virginia Cavaliers)	-10.5
Total	53.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 13, 2026, 3:04 PM UTC · Updated Sep 13, 2026, 3:05 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won West Virginia vs Virginia?: West Virginia Mountaineers won 38-27. Maiden picked Virginia Cavaliers at 73% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 70% to 75% have won 38 of 54 college football games, 70%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the West Virginia vs Virginia win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for the neutral site, where neither team has home field. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.