NBA 2026-27 Projections: Win Totals, Playoff Odds and Title Picks
Every number here comes from simulating the full 2026-27 season fifty thousand times, starting from each team’s current roster. The picks are frozen and graded when the season ends. The table below them moves with the season.
Championship picks
- Top pickOpen
Oklahoma City Thunder
36.6%Maiden gives Oklahoma City Thunder a 36.6% chance to win the 2026-27 NBA title: the team we rate highest.
Oklahoma City Thunder tops our board, and 36.6% still means the field wins it more often than they do.
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 36.6% to win the 2026-27 title across 50,000 simulated seasons, number 1 on our board.
- Projects to 63.2 wins (middle 80%: 52-73), reaches the playoffs in 99.2% of seasons and wins the Western Conference in 50.0%.
- ContenderOpen
San Antonio Spurs
13.7%Maiden gives San Antonio Spurs a 13.7% chance to win the 2026-27 NBA title: the second team on our board.
Run the season fifty thousand times and San Antonio Spurs lifts the trophy in 13.7% of them.
- San Antonio Spurs: 13.7% to win the 2026-27 title across 50,000 simulated seasons, number 2 on our board.
- Projects to 56.4 wins (middle 80%: 44-68), reaches the playoffs in 95.1% of seasons and wins the Western Conference in 21.4%.
- LongshotOpen
Toronto Raptors
2.7%Maiden gives Toronto Raptors a 2.7% chance to win the 2026-27 NBA title: our longshot, a real path rather than a lottery ticket.
2.7% is small and it is the honest number: Toronto Raptors gets there by winning the series our ratings call close.
- Toronto Raptors: 2.7% to win the 2026-27 title across 50,000 simulated seasons, number 9 on our board.
- Projects to 45.8 wins (middle 80%: 33-59), reaches the playoffs in 70.9% of seasons and wins the Eastern Conference in 8.3%.
Conference picks
- Eastern ConferenceOpen
Boston Celtics
19.6%Maiden gives Boston Celtics a 19.6% chance to win the Eastern Conference in 2026-27, the highest in the conference on our board.
A conference title is three playoff rounds, not a regular season. 19.6% is Boston Celtics getting through all of them.
- Boston Celtics: 19.6% to win the Eastern Conference, the highest in the conference on our board.
- Top-six seed in 77.3% of simulated seasons, number one seed in 21.3%.
- Western ConferenceOpen
Oklahoma City Thunder
50.0%Maiden gives Oklahoma City Thunder a 50.0% chance to win the Western Conference in 2026-27, the highest in the conference on our board.
A conference title is three playoff rounds, not a regular season. 50.0% is Oklahoma City Thunder getting through all of them.
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 50.0% to win the Western Conference, the highest in the conference on our board.
- Top-six seed in 97.7% of simulated seasons, number one seed in 57.1%.
Every team: projected wins and odds
Wins is the average across simulated seasons; Range covers the middle 80% of them. Playoffs counts a top-six seed or a way through the play-in. These are forecasts, refreshed weekly, and they are not graded the way the picks above are. Market title is the market's championship probability, a consensus across books with each book's margin removed. It is the market's number, not ours.
Eastern Conference
| Team | Wins | Range | Playoffs | Conf. | Title | Market title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 56.5 | 46–66 | 97.7% | 26.2% | 12.0% | 6.7% |
| Detroit Pistons | 56.5 | 46–66 | 97.8% | 25.0% | 11.2% | 3.4% |
| New York Knicks | 50.1 | 40–60 | 91.2% | 14.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 49.3 | 38–60 | 88.8% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% |
| Toronto Raptors | 48.1 | 37–59 | 86.6% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 47.4 | 37–58 | 83.2% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 8.8% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 45.4 | 35–56 | 78.4% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Miami Heat | 40.3 | 30–51 | 58.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 1.9% |
| Orlando Magic | 37.6 | 27–49 | 45.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 35.9 | 25–47 | 38.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| Washington Wizards | 28.3 | 19–39 | 11.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Indiana Pacers | 27.6 | 18–38 | 10.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2.0% |
| Chicago Bulls | 24.8 | 15–35 | 5.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 22.6 | 14–32 | 3.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 21.8 | 13–32 | 2.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Western Conference
| Team | Wins | Range | Playoffs | Conf. | Title | Market title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 58.6 | 49–68 | 97.0% | 23.7% | 15.1% | 5.4% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 58.0 | 48–67 | 96.6% | 26.1% | 16.8% | 21.3% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 57.0 | 47–66 | 95.4% | 20.4% | 12.6% | 15.7% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 53.3 | 43–63 | 90.0% | 13.6% | 7.9% | 4.4% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 47.0 | 36–58 | 70.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% |
| Denver Nuggets | 45.7 | 35–57 | 64.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 3.1% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 45.6 | 34–57 | 64.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% |
| Golden State Warriors | 45.5 | 35–56 | 64.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 42.7 | 32–54 | 50.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 41.7 | 31–53 | 46.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| LA Clippers | 36.3 | 25–47 | 24.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Phoenix Suns | 35.8 | 25–47 | 23.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 31.8 | 21–43 | 11.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Utah Jazz | 22.7 | 14–32 | 1.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| Sacramento Kings | 16.2 | 8–25 | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Common questions
- Who is favoured to win the 2026-27 NBA championship?
- Maiden rates Oklahoma City Thunder the most likely champion at 36.6%. That is our own probability from simulating the full season, the play-in and every playoff series, not a market price.
- How many games will each NBA team win in 2026-27?
- Our projection table above gives every team's expected wins and the range that covers the middle 80% of simulated seasons. Houston Rockets projects highest, at 58.6 wins.
- How are these projections calculated?
- Each team starts from a preseason rating built from its CURRENT roster: what every player was worth over the last three seasons and how many minutes he is likely to play, blended with how the teams those players came from performed. We then simulate the season fifty thousand times. Each simulation first draws how good every team really is, then plays every scheduled game, the play-in and the playoffs.
- How accurate are preseason NBA projections?
- We tested this method on the ten seasons from 2016-17 to 2025-26 before publishing it. Projections missed a team's final win total by about seven wins on average, and 83% of teams finished inside the range we would have printed, against the 80% that range claims.
- What is the market column?
- It is the market's championship probability: a consensus across books, with each book's built-in margin removed, shown as a percentage. It is there so you can see where our number and the market's disagree. It is the market's number, not ours, and nothing on this page is betting advice.
Nothing on this page is betting advice.