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NFL Fantasy Football Rankings & Projections — Week 7, 2026

Weekly projections for every startable quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end, in standard, half-PPR and full-PPR scoring — the full board, open, and graded against actual points the week after it publishes.

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193 of 193 players

Quarterbacks, Week 7, 2026 (40 players)

Quarterbacks fantasy projections for Week 7, 2026, ranked by projected points, identical in all three scoring formats.
RkPlayerGamePtsRangeActual
1Jared GoffLionsvs Packers19.69.8–30.218.0
1Dak PrescottCowboysat Eagles18.18.4–28.423.3
2Brock Purdy49ersat Falcons18.68.9–29.012.0
2Jalen HurtsEaglesvs Cowboys14.75.6–24.6DNP
3Jordan LovePackersat Lions18.18.5–28.417.0
4Matthew StaffordRamsat Raiders18.18.5–28.417.5
6Joe BurrowBengalsat Ravens17.58.0–27.828.9
6Drake MayePatriotsat Bears17.88.2–28.027.4
7C.J. StroudTexansvs Giants16.67.2–26.716.5
8Bryce YoungPanthersvs Buccaneers16.47.0–26.45.4
8Caleb WilliamsBearsvs Patriots17.17.6–27.322.1
9Kirk CousinsRaidersvs Rams15.56.2–25.520.4
10Aaron RodgersSteelersat Saints15.56.2–25.413.1
11Tyler ShoughSaintsvs Steelers15.15.9–25.013.8
13Patrick MahomesChiefsat Seahawks14.65.5–24.56.0
14Kyler MurrayVikingsvs Colts14.65.4–24.413.9
15Deshaun WatsonBrownsat Titans14.45.2–24.218.2
16Jacoby BrissettCardinalsvs Broncos14.25.1–24.016.5
17Michael Penix Jr.Falconsvs 49ers14.04.9–23.720.4
18Baker MayfieldBuccaneersQuestionableat Panthers13.74.6–23.46.7
19Bo NixBroncosat Cardinals13.64.6–23.326.2
22Sam DarnoldSeahawksvs Chiefs12.93.9–22.514.0
24Daniel JonesColtsat Vikings12.63.7–22.23.6
25Geno SmithJetsvs Dolphins12.43.5–21.923.5
26Jalon DanielsBuccaneersat Panthers12.13.2–21.6-0.3
28Jameis WinstonGiantsat Texans11.93.0–21.46.4
29Malik WillisDolphinsat Jets11.82.9–21.226.0
32Cam WardTitansvs Browns9.81.2–19.05.7
—Justin FieldsChiefsBackupat Seahawks———
—Joe FlaccoBengalsBackupat Ravens——0.0
—Davis MillsTexansBackupvs Giants———
—Spencer RattlerSaintsBackupvs Steelers———
—Carson WentzVikingsBackupvs Colts———
—Jaxson DartGiantsBackupat Texans———
—Tyrod TaylorPackersBackupat Lions———
—Tua TagovailoaFalconsBackupvs 49ers———
—Mac Jones49ersBackupat Falcons———
—J.J. McCarthyGiantsBackupat Texans——10.2
—Shedeur SandersBrownsBackupat Titans———
—Lamar JacksonRavensOutvs Bengals———
Each call, in one sentence(22)
  • Our projection has Jared Goff at 19.6 half-PPR points against the Packers in Week 7, 2026, our QB1.
  • Our projection has Dak Prescott at 18.1 half-PPR points at the Eagles in Week 7, 2026, our QB1.
  • Our projection has Brock Purdy at 18.6 half-PPR points at the Falcons in Week 7, 2026, our QB2.
  • Our projection has Jalen Hurts at 14.7 half-PPR points against the Cowboys in Week 7, 2026, our QB2.
  • Our projection has Jordan Love at 18.1 half-PPR points at the Lions in Week 7, 2026, our QB3.
  • Our projection has Matthew Stafford at 18.1 half-PPR points at the Raiders in Week 7, 2026, our QB4.
  • Our projection has Joe Burrow at 17.5 half-PPR points at the Ravens in Week 7, 2026, our QB6.
  • Our projection has Drake Maye at 17.8 half-PPR points at the Bears in Week 7, 2026, our QB6.
  • Our projection has C.J. Stroud at 16.6 half-PPR points against the Giants in Week 7, 2026, our QB7.
  • Our projection has Bryce Young at 16.4 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 7, 2026, our QB8.
  • Justin Fields is listed as a backup for the Chiefs in Week 7, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Joe Flacco is listed as a backup for the Bengals in Week 7, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Davis Mills is listed as a backup for the Texans in Week 7, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Spencer Rattler is listed as a backup for the Saints in Week 7, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Carson Wentz is listed as a backup for the Vikings in Week 7, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Jaxson Dart is listed as a backup for the Giants in Week 7, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Tyrod Taylor is listed as a backup for the Packers in Week 7, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Tua Tagovailoa is listed as a backup for the Falcons in Week 7, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Mac Jones is listed as a backup for the 49ers in Week 7, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • J.J. McCarthy is listed as a backup for the Giants in Week 7, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Shedeur Sanders is listed as a backup for the Browns in Week 7, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Lamar Jackson is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 against the Bengals. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.

Running Backs, Week 7, 2026 (54 players)

Running Backs fantasy projections for Week 7, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
RkPlayerGameStdHalf-PPRPPRRangeActual
1Jahmyr GibbsLionsvs Packers21.924.326.613.1–38.914.8
1Javonte WilliamsCowboysat Eagles11.512.814.14.6–23.621.5
2Aaron JonesVikingsvs Colts17.118.519.98.9–31.23.1
2Saquon BarkleyEaglesQuestionablevs Cowboys6.06.87.50.1–15.514.1
3Christian McCaffrey49ersat Falcons15.818.120.58.6–30.719.0
3Tank BigsbyEaglesvs Cowboys4.75.15.50.0–13.3DNP
4Bijan RobinsonFalconsvs 49ers16.017.719.38.3–30.114.7
5Kenneth Walker IIIChiefsat Seahawks16.017.418.78.0–29.77.7
6Chuba HubbardPanthersvs Buccaneers16.217.318.37.9–29.68.0
7Kyren WilliamsRamsat Raiders14.316.518.77.4–28.617.1
8Jonathan TaylorColtsat Vikings14.415.817.26.9–27.618.0
8D'Andre SwiftBearsvs Patriots14.916.317.67.2–28.317.0
9Jaylen WarrenSteelersat Saints14.115.817.56.8–27.615.2
10Derrick HenryRavensvs Bengals14.214.915.66.2–26.45.4
11Chase BrownBengalsat Ravens12.214.316.45.7–25.67.8
13Bucky IrvingBuccaneersat Panthers12.714.015.25.5–25.123.5
14Breece HallJetsQuestionablevs Dolphins12.013.214.44.9–24.2DNP
15Ashton JeantyRaidersvs Rams11.113.215.24.9–24.117.6
16Woody MarksTexansvs Giants11.812.813.84.6–23.68.6
17Braelon AllenJetsvs Dolphins11.512.213.04.2–22.916.4
18J.K. DobbinsBroncosat Cardinals10.811.512.33.7–21.98.3
19Quinshon JudkinsBrownsat Titans10.111.513.03.7–21.922.9
20Josh JacobsPackersat Lions9.810.912.03.2–21.117.6
21Tony PollardTitansvs Browns9.910.711.53.1–20.835.0
22Jordan MasonVikingsQuestionablevs Colts10.010.410.92.8–20.46.8
23Trey BensonCardinalsvs Broncos8.910.311.62.7–20.2DNP
23Rhamondre StevensonPatriotsat Bears9.410.511.62.9–20.620.0
24Emanuel WilsonSeahawksvs Chiefs9.39.810.42.4–19.618.0
25De'Von AchaneDolphinsat Jets7.99.511.02.1–19.1DNP
26Isiah PachecoLionsvs Packers8.39.210.12.0–18.8DNP
27Travis EtienneSaintsvs Steelers7.79.010.41.8–18.6DNP
28Cam SkatteboGiantsat Texans7.38.49.41.3–17.618.6
29Ollie Gordon IIDolphinsat Jets7.88.38.81.3–17.516.8
30Tyler AllgeierCardinalsvs Broncos7.48.29.11.2–17.56.4
31Michael CarterTitansvs Browns6.77.99.11.0–17.11.9
32RJ HarveyBroncosat Cardinals5.57.39.10.5–16.213.0
33Audric EstiméBrownsat Titans6.26.97.60.2–15.7DNP
34Rico DowdleSteelersQuestionableat Saints5.66.88.10.2–15.611.6
35Kendre MillerSaintsvs Steelers5.76.36.90.0–14.94.3
35Roschon JohnsonBearsvs Patriots6.77.68.40.7–16.61.3
36MarShawn LloydPackersat Lions5.36.27.20.0–14.84.5
37Alvin KamaraSaintsvs Steelers4.76.17.50.0–14.69.7
39Blake CorumRamsat Raiders4.75.56.30.0–13.816.6
40Bam KnightCardinalsvs Broncos4.85.46.00.0–13.77.8
41Tyjae SpearsTitansQuestionablevs Browns2.33.54.70.0–11.2DNP
43Kenny GainwellBuccaneersat Panthers2.13.34.50.0–10.98.8
44Devin SingletaryGiantsat Texans2.12.83.50.0–10.213.0
45Tyrone Tracy Jr.Giantsat Texans1.52.12.80.0–9.38.2
46TreVeyon HendersonPatriotsat Bears3.94.55.10.0–12.53.3
—David MontgomeryTexansOutvs Giants—————
—Brian RobinsonFalconsOutvs 49ers—————
—Zach CharbonnetSeahawksOutvs Chiefs—————
—Jeremiyah LoveCardinalsOutvs Broncos—————
—Kyle MonangaiBearsOutvs Patriots—————
Each call, in one sentence(15)
  • Our projection has Jahmyr Gibbs at 24.3 half-PPR points against the Packers in Week 7, 2026, our RB1.
  • Our projection has Javonte Williams at 12.8 half-PPR points at the Eagles in Week 7, 2026, our RB1.
  • Our projection has Aaron Jones at 18.5 half-PPR points against the Colts in Week 7, 2026, our RB2.
  • Our projection has Saquon Barkley at 6.8 half-PPR points against the Cowboys in Week 7, 2026, our RB2 (listed questionable, and the number assumes he plays).
  • Our projection has Christian McCaffrey at 18.1 half-PPR points at the Falcons in Week 7, 2026, our RB3.
  • Our projection has Tank Bigsby at 5.1 half-PPR points against the Cowboys in Week 7, 2026, our RB3.
  • Our projection has Bijan Robinson at 17.7 half-PPR points against the 49ers in Week 7, 2026, our RB4.
  • Our projection has Kenneth Walker III at 17.4 half-PPR points at the Seahawks in Week 7, 2026, our RB5.
  • Our projection has Chuba Hubbard at 17.3 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 7, 2026, our RB6.
  • Our projection has Kyren Williams at 16.5 half-PPR points at the Raiders in Week 7, 2026, our RB7.
  • David Montgomery is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 against the Giants. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Brian Robinson is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 against the 49ers. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Zach Charbonnet is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 against the Chiefs. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Jeremiyah Love is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 against the Broncos. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Kyle Monangai is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 against the Patriots. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.

Wide Receivers, Week 7, 2026 (66 players)

Wide Receivers fantasy projections for Week 7, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
RkPlayerGameStdHalf-PPRPPRRangeActual
1Puka NacuaRamsQuestionableat Raiders14.418.622.98.9–31.817.8
1CeeDee LambCowboysat Eagles12.716.520.37.3–28.821.9
2Amon-Ra St. BrownLionsvs Packers13.817.621.38.1–30.319.7
2George PickensCowboysat Eagles9.712.415.24.4–23.313.7
3Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeahawksvs Chiefs13.517.321.07.9–30.026.8
3Ryan FlournoyCowboysat Eagles5.67.69.50.9–16.69.0
4Makai LemonEaglesvs Cowboys4.36.17.80.0–14.516.2
6Drake LondonFalconsvs 49ers10.513.115.74.9–24.116.1
7Tetairoa McMillanPanthersvs Buccaneers10.213.015.84.8–24.16.0
8Malik NabersGiantsat Texans9.612.916.24.8–23.914.6
9Christian WatsonPackersat Lions10.612.815.14.7–23.88.2
10Matthew GoldenPackersat Lions10.312.815.34.7–23.86.9
11Chris OlaveSaintsvs Steelers9.612.715.74.6–23.68.6
12Zay FlowersRavensvs Bengals9.812.715.64.6–23.623.7
13DK MetcalfSteelersat Saints9.612.114.74.2–22.86.6
14Davante AdamsRamsat Raiders9.111.614.13.8–22.1DNP
15Tee HigginsBengalsat Ravens9.011.614.23.8–22.123.8
16Michael WilsonCardinalsvs Broncos8.711.514.33.8–22.08.6
17Ja'Marr ChaseBengalsat Ravens8.511.314.13.6–21.714.7
18Garrett WilsonJetsvs Dolphins8.811.313.83.6–21.63.6
19Nico CollinsTexansvs Giants8.711.113.53.4–21.41.6
20Jameson WilliamsLionsvs Packers8.410.212.02.8–20.223.6
21Jalen CokerPanthersvs Buccaneers7.39.912.62.6–19.81.4
22Germie BernardSteelersat Saints7.59.812.22.6–19.74.2
23Devaughn VeleSaintsvs Steelers7.29.411.62.3–19.113.9
24Carnell TateTitansvs Browns6.38.711.01.7–18.17.4
24A.J. BrownPatriotsat Bears7.610.012.42.7–19.96.3
25Denzel BostonBrownsat Titans6.98.610.41.7–18.04.2
26Jaylen WaddleBroncosat Cardinals6.48.510.61.6–17.96.8
27Tre TuckerRaidersvs Rams6.68.410.31.5–17.718.8
28Justin JeffersonVikingsvs Colts6.28.410.61.5–17.76.4
28Luther Burden IIIBearsvs Patriots7.19.511.82.3–19.221.7
29Josh DownsColtsat Vikings6.18.310.51.5–17.62.8
29Rome OdunzeBearsvs Patriots7.79.411.12.2–19.18.9
30Keenan AllenColtsat Vikings5.58.311.01.4–17.54.6
31Jordan AddisonVikingsvs Colts6.58.210.01.4–17.43.3
33Chris Godwin Jr.Buccaneersat Panthers6.07.99.91.2–17.14.7
34Malik WashingtonDolphinsat Jets5.47.69.91.0–16.65.0
35Ricky Pearsall49ersat Falcons5.37.49.50.8–16.3DNP
36Wan'Dale RobinsonTitansvs Browns4.97.29.40.6–16.02.7
37Xavier WorthyChiefsat Seahawks5.17.08.90.5–15.82.6
38Cooper KuppSeahawksvs Chiefs5.37.08.60.5–15.73.0
39Courtland SuttonBroncosat Cardinals5.26.68.10.3–15.36.0
41Kendrick BourneCardinalsvs Broncos4.26.28.30.0–14.72.4
42KC ConcepcionBrownsat Titans3.65.47.30.0–13.619.2
43Michael PittmanSteelersat Saints3.65.37.00.0–13.5DNP
44Rashid ShaheedSeahawksvs Chiefs3.75.36.80.0–13.31.1
45Laquon TreadwellColtsat Vikings3.95.16.40.0–13.22.9
46Jerry JeudyBrownsat Titans3.44.86.20.0–12.74.1
47Alec PierceColtsat Vikings2.94.25.50.0–11.9DNP
48Marvin Harrison Jr.Texansvs Giants2.53.64.80.0–11.17.1
48Rashod BatemanRavensvs Bengals4.55.97.30.0–14.34.3
49Jauan JenningsVikingsvs Colts1.92.73.50.0–9.84.4
50Elic AyomanorTitansvs Browns1.72.53.30.0–9.55.9
51Calvin RidleyTitansQuestionablevs Browns1.32.23.10.0–9.1DNP
51DeMario DouglasPatriotsat Bears4.56.27.90.0–14.73.8
52Troy FranklinBroncosat Cardinals1.12.02.80.0–8.80.0
52Mack HollinsPatriotsat Bears4.15.77.40.0–14.0DNP
53Xavier HutchinsonTexansvs Giants3.75.37.00.0–13.510.4
58Romeo DoubsPatriotsat Bears3.64.96.30.0–12.9DNP
—Mike Evans49ersOutat Falcons—————
—Deebo Samuel Sr.49ersOutat Falcons—————
—Rashee RiceChiefsOutat Seahawks—————
—Emeka EgbukaBuccaneersOutat Panthers—————
—DeVonta SmithEaglesOutvs Cowboys—————
—Dontayvion WicksEaglesOutvs Cowboys—————
Each call, in one sentence(16)
  • Our projection has Puka Nacua at 18.6 half-PPR points at the Raiders in Week 7, 2026, our WR1 (listed questionable, and the number assumes he plays).
  • Our projection has CeeDee Lamb at 16.5 half-PPR points at the Eagles in Week 7, 2026, our WR1.
  • Our projection has Amon-Ra St. Brown at 17.6 half-PPR points against the Packers in Week 7, 2026, our WR2.
  • Our projection has George Pickens at 12.4 half-PPR points at the Eagles in Week 7, 2026, our WR2.
  • Our projection has Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 17.3 half-PPR points against the Chiefs in Week 7, 2026, our WR3.
  • Our projection has Ryan Flournoy at 7.6 half-PPR points at the Eagles in Week 7, 2026, our WR3.
  • Our projection has Makai Lemon at 6.1 half-PPR points against the Cowboys in Week 7, 2026, our WR4.
  • Our projection has Drake London at 13.1 half-PPR points against the 49ers in Week 7, 2026, our WR6.
  • Our projection has Tetairoa McMillan at 13.0 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 7, 2026, our WR7.
  • Our projection has Malik Nabers at 12.9 half-PPR points at the Texans in Week 7, 2026, our WR8.
  • Mike Evans is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 at the Falcons. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr. is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 at the Falcons. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Rashee Rice is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 at the Seahawks. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Emeka Egbuka is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 at the Panthers. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • DeVonta Smith is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 against the Cowboys. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Dontayvion Wicks is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 against the Cowboys. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.

Tight Ends, Week 7, 2026 (33 players)

Tight Ends fantasy projections for Week 7, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
RkPlayerGameStdHalf-PPRPPRRangeActual
1Brock BowersRaidersvs Rams10.213.516.75.4–24.510.3
1Dallas GoedertEaglesvs Cowboys5.67.89.91.9–15.87.3
2Trey McBrideCardinalsvs Broncos9.513.116.75.2–24.022.1
2Jake FergusonCowboysat Eagles3.95.57.10.5–12.40.0
3Isaiah LikelyGiantsat Texans8.611.514.54.2–21.62.2
4Sam LaPortaLionsvs Packers8.811.313.84.1–21.22.3
5George Kittle49ersat Falcons8.911.113.33.9–20.910.8
6Tucker KraftPackersat Lions6.78.911.02.6–17.512.8
8Travis KelceChiefsat Seahawks5.67.69.51.8–15.56.4
9Tyler HigbeeRamsat Raiders5.47.49.41.7–15.32.4
10Michael MayerRaidersvs Rams4.96.98.81.3–14.44.7
11Harold Fannin Jr.Brownsat Titans5.16.88.61.3–14.410.1
11Colston LovelandBearsvs Patriots5.87.69.41.8–15.616.4
12Jake Tonges49ersat Falcons4.86.68.41.2–14.1DNP
13Dalton SchultzTexansvs Giants4.56.68.71.2–14.17.0
14Mark AndrewsRavensvs Bengals4.86.68.41.2–14.03.8
15Juwan JohnsonSaintsvs Steelers4.66.68.51.1–14.01.2
16Cade OttonBuccaneersat Panthers4.86.58.11.1–13.80.0
17Pat FreiermuthSteelersat Saints4.66.48.11.0–13.73.0
18AJ BarnerSeahawksvs Chiefs4.66.17.60.8–13.26.6
19Kyle PittsFalconsvs 49ers4.66.07.50.8–13.210.7
20T.J. HockensonVikingsvs Colts3.75.67.50.5–12.511.5
21Mike GesickiBengalsat Ravens4.05.56.90.5–12.37.1
22Hunter HenryPatriotsat Bears4.45.97.40.7–13.010.6
23Darren WallerPanthersvs Buccaneers3.55.06.50.2–11.611.5
24Darnell WashingtonSteelersat Saints3.54.96.30.1–11.56.9
25Mason TaylorJetsvs Dolphins3.04.66.20.0–11.022.7
26Greg DulcichDolphinsat Jets3.04.56.10.0–10.911.1
27Colby ParkinsonRamsat Raiders2.53.74.80.0–9.57.3
28Evan EngramBroncosat Cardinals2.13.44.60.0–9.10.7
29Kenyon SadiqJetsvs Dolphins1.93.44.80.0–9.11.1
30Theo JohnsonGiantsDoubtfulat Texans1.52.63.60.0–7.8DNP
—Tyler WarrenColtsOutat Vikings—————
Each call, in one sentence(11)
  • Our projection has Brock Bowers at 13.5 half-PPR points against the Rams in Week 7, 2026, our TE1.
  • Our projection has Dallas Goedert at 7.8 half-PPR points against the Cowboys in Week 7, 2026, our TE1.
  • Our projection has Trey McBride at 13.1 half-PPR points against the Broncos in Week 7, 2026, our TE2.
  • Our projection has Jake Ferguson at 5.5 half-PPR points at the Eagles in Week 7, 2026, our TE2.
  • Our projection has Isaiah Likely at 11.5 half-PPR points at the Texans in Week 7, 2026, our TE3.
  • Our projection has Sam LaPorta at 11.3 half-PPR points against the Packers in Week 7, 2026, our TE4.
  • Our projection has George Kittle at 11.1 half-PPR points at the Falcons in Week 7, 2026, our TE5.
  • Our projection has Tucker Kraft at 8.9 half-PPR points at the Lions in Week 7, 2026, our TE6.
  • Our projection has Travis Kelce at 7.6 half-PPR points at the Seahawks in Week 7, 2026, our TE8.
  • Our projection has Tyler Higbee at 7.4 half-PPR points at the Raiders in Week 7, 2026, our TE9.
  • Tyler Warren is ruled out for Week 7, 2026 at the Vikings. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.

Start or sit: compare two players

Pick the two you are torn between. The gap is our projection’s, and the rows underneath are the components that produce it. Free, like every number on this board.

Our projection has Jared Goff ahead by 1.5 Half-PPR points, 19.6 to 18.1.

Jared Goff compared with Dak Prescott, Half-PPR scoring.
 Jared GoffDak PrescottGap
Projected Half-PPR19.618.11.5
Range (floor–ceiling)9.8–30.28.4–28.4—
Positional rankQB1QB1—
This weekvs Packersat Eagles—
Rush yards5.211-5.8
Pass yards312309.42.6
Carries22.6-0.6
Pass TDs2.11.90.2
Interceptions0.91-0.1
Rush TDs0.10.10

Components are the projection’s own expected stat line, not last week’s box score. Both numbers assume the player takes the field: the model does not forecast whether he is active, which is why the injury row is there and why a player ruled out carries a status instead of a number.

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How these projections work

Projections are our own model's output: recent role and usage, shrunk efficiency rates, and the game's scoring environment. The range beside each number is modeled, not a fixed band: the 10th to 90th percentile of that player's outcomes for the week, fit from how projections like his have actually landed. Every projection is graded against actual fantasy points the week after it publishes. Every number is conditional on the player playing: a player ruled out carries his status instead of a projection, and a player who takes no offensive snap is excluded from the record rather than counted as a zero. One snap is enough to be graded — a player who was on the field is scored on what he actually did, including nothing at all. Nothing here is betting advice.

Kickers and team defenses are not on the board yet — the model projects the four positions where snaps and usage separate startable players. Team defenses are planned to join around Week 4, kickers later in the season, and both appear here first when they do.