Maiden.bet

NFL Fantasy Football Rankings & Projections — Week 9, 2026

Weekly projections for every startable quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end, in standard, half-PPR and full-PPR scoring — the full board, open, and graded against actual points the week after it publishes.

Share the board

Every ranking on this page is free and graded in public.What Maiden Pro adds ($10/mo) →

208 of 208 players

Quarterbacks, Week 9, 2026 (45 players)

Quarterbacks fantasy projections for Week 9, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
RkPlayerGameStdHalf-PPRPPRRange
1Josh AllenBillsat Vikings20.820.920.910.9–31.6
2Brock Purdy49ersvs Raiders20.320.320.310.4–30.9
3Joe BurrowBengalsat Falcons20.020.020.010.1–30.6
4Dak PrescottCowboysat Colts19.419.419.49.6–29.9
5Patrick MahomesChiefsvs Jets17.817.817.88.2–28.0
6Drake MayePatriotsvs Packers17.517.517.57.9–27.7
7Jared GoffLionsat Dolphins17.317.317.37.8–27.5
8Caleb WilliamsBearsvs Buccaneers16.916.916.97.4–27.0
10Jordan LovePackersat Patriots16.316.316.36.9–26.3
11Matthew StaffordRamsat Commanders16.116.116.16.7–26.1
12Tyler ShoughSaintsvs Browns15.915.915.96.6–26.0
13Jayden DanielsCommandersvs Rams15.815.815.86.5–25.8
14Kirk CousinsRaidersat 49ers15.715.715.76.4–25.7
15Deshaun WatsonBrownsat Saints15.715.715.76.3–25.7
16Trevor LawrenceJaguarsat Ravens14.814.814.85.6–24.6
17C.J. StroudTexansat Chargers14.714.714.75.5–24.5
19Michael Penix Jr.Falconsvs Bengals14.314.314.35.1–24.1
20Bo NixBroncosat Panthers14.314.314.35.1–24.1
21Malik WillisDolphinsvs Lions14.214.214.25.1–24.0
22Bryce YoungPanthersvs Broncos14.114.114.15.0–23.9
23Daniel JonesColtsvs Cowboys14.114.114.14.9–23.8
24Sam DarnoldSeahawksvs Cardinals14.014.014.04.9–23.8
25Kyler MurrayVikingsvs Bills13.913.913.94.8–23.7
26Jalen HurtsEaglesvs Giants13.913.913.94.8–23.6
27Jacoby BrissettCardinalsat Seahawks12.812.912.93.9–22.5
29Geno SmithJetsat Chiefs12.612.612.63.7–22.2
30Justin HerbertChargersvs Texans12.312.312.33.5–21.9
32Jaxson DartGiantsat Eagles11.111.111.12.4–20.5
35Lamar JacksonRavensvs Jaguars10.210.210.21.6–19.4
37Baker MayfieldBuccaneersat Bears9.89.89.81.3–19.0
—Justin FieldsChiefsBackupvs Jets————
—Joe FlaccoBengalsBackupat Falcons————
—Spencer RattlerSaintsBackupvs Browns————
—Davis MillsTexansBackupat Chargers————
—Jameis WinstonGiantsBackupat Eagles————
—Carson WentzVikingsBackupvs Bills————
—Marcus MariotaCommandersBackupvs Rams————
—Jalon DanielsBuccaneersBackupat Bears————
—J.J. McCarthyGiantsBackupat Eagles————
—Tua TagovailoaFalconsBackupvs Bengals————
—Tyler HuntleyRavensBackupvs Jaguars————
—Mac Jones49ersBackupvs Raiders————
—Tyrod TaylorPackersBackupat Patriots————
—Quinn EwersJaguarsBackupat Ravens————
—Shedeur SandersBrownsBackupat Saints————
Each call, in one sentence(25)
  • Our projection has Josh Allen at 20.9 half-PPR points at the Vikings in Week 9, 2026, our QB1.
  • Our projection has Brock Purdy at 20.3 half-PPR points against the Raiders in Week 9, 2026, our QB2.
  • Our projection has Joe Burrow at 20.0 half-PPR points at the Falcons in Week 9, 2026, our QB3.
  • Our projection has Dak Prescott at 19.4 half-PPR points at the Colts in Week 9, 2026, our QB4.
  • Our projection has Patrick Mahomes at 17.8 half-PPR points against the Jets in Week 9, 2026, our QB5.
  • Our projection has Drake Maye at 17.5 half-PPR points against the Packers in Week 9, 2026, our QB6.
  • Our projection has Jared Goff at 17.3 half-PPR points at the Dolphins in Week 9, 2026, our QB7.
  • Our projection has Caleb Williams at 16.9 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 9, 2026, our QB8.
  • Our projection has Jordan Love at 16.3 half-PPR points at the Patriots in Week 9, 2026, our QB10.
  • Our projection has Matthew Stafford at 16.1 half-PPR points at the Commanders in Week 9, 2026, our QB11.
  • Justin Fields is listed as a backup for the Chiefs in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Joe Flacco is listed as a backup for the Bengals in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Spencer Rattler is listed as a backup for the Saints in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Davis Mills is listed as a backup for the Texans in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Jameis Winston is listed as a backup for the Giants in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Carson Wentz is listed as a backup for the Vikings in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Marcus Mariota is listed as a backup for the Commanders in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Jalon Daniels is listed as a backup for the Buccaneers in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • J.J. McCarthy is listed as a backup for the Giants in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Tua Tagovailoa is listed as a backup for the Falcons in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Tyler Huntley is listed as a backup for the Ravens in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Mac Jones is listed as a backup for the 49ers in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Tyrod Taylor is listed as a backup for the Packers in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Quinn Ewers is listed as a backup for the Jaguars in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Shedeur Sanders is listed as a backup for the Browns in Week 9, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.

Running Backs, Week 9, 2026 (60 players)

Running Backs fantasy projections for Week 9, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
RkPlayerGameStdHalf-PPRPPRRange
1Jahmyr GibbsLionsat Dolphins24.326.528.714.8–41.9
2Kenneth Walker IIIChiefsvs Jets18.820.321.810.2–33.6
3D'Andre SwiftBearsvs Buccaneers17.919.320.69.4–32.3
4Christian McCaffrey49ersvs Raiders15.818.320.78.7–30.9
5Bijan RobinsonFalconsvs Bengals16.417.919.48.4–30.5
6James CookBillsat Vikings16.817.718.78.3–30.2
7Javonte WilliamsCowboysat Colts16.117.218.27.9–29.4
8Kyren WilliamsRamsat Commanders14.316.017.77.0–27.9
9Chuba HubbardPanthersvs Broncos14.415.917.46.9–27.8
10Chase BrownBengalsat Falcons13.315.617.96.7–27.3
11Bucky IrvingBuccaneersat Bears13.814.915.96.2–26.4
12Jonathan TaylorColtsvs Cowboys13.414.916.36.1–26.3
13Josh JacobsPackersat Patriots12.314.115.95.6–25.3
14Bhayshul TutenJaguarsat Ravens12.713.614.55.2–24.6
15Kyle MonangaiBearsvs Buccaneers12.513.113.74.8–23.9
16Rhamondre StevensonPatriotsvs Packers11.712.914.14.7–23.7
17Braelon AllenJetsat Chiefs11.912.913.94.7–23.7
18Ollie Gordon IIDolphinsvs Lions12.012.513.14.4–23.2
19Woody MarksTexansat Chargers11.512.413.34.3–23.1
20Emanuel WilsonSeahawksvs Cardinals11.211.812.33.9–22.2
21Breece HallJetsat Chiefs10.311.612.83.7–21.9
22Derrick HenryRavensvs Jaguars10.611.312.03.5–21.6
23Ashton JeantyRaidersat 49ers9.111.213.23.4–21.4
24Cam SkatteboGiantsat Eagles10.011.012.03.3–21.2
25Quinshon JudkinsBrownsat Saints9.210.411.62.9–20.4
26Travis EtienneSaintsvs Browns9.010.411.72.8–20.4
27De'Von AchaneDolphinsvs Lions8.810.411.92.8–20.3
28Isiah PachecoLionsat Dolphins8.89.810.72.4–19.5
29Aaron JonesVikingsvs Bills8.59.610.82.3–19.4
30Jonah ColemanBroncosat Panthers8.49.510.62.1–19.1
31Blake CorumRamsat Commanders7.88.59.21.4–17.8
32Rachaad WhiteCommandersvs Rams7.28.49.71.4–17.8
33Alvin KamaraSaintsvs Browns6.78.410.11.3–17.7
34Jadarian PriceSeahawksvs Cardinals7.38.49.41.3–17.7
35Zach CharbonnetSeahawksvs Cardinals7.28.39.31.2–17.5
36Trey BensonCardinalsat Seahawks6.78.19.51.1–17.3
37Kenny GainwellBuccaneersat Bears7.18.09.01.1–17.2
38Tyler AllgeierCardinalsat Seahawks6.87.88.90.9–17.0
39Jordan MasonVikingsvs Bills7.47.88.30.9–16.9
40Omarion HamptonChargersvs Texans6.87.78.70.9–16.8
41Jacory Croskey-MerrittCommandersvs Rams7.17.68.20.8–16.7
42Kendre MillerSaintsvs Browns6.77.58.40.7–16.5
43Jeremiyah LoveCardinalsat Seahawks6.06.87.70.2–15.6
44J.K. DobbinsBroncosat Panthers6.16.77.20.1–15.4
45Kaelon Black49ersvs Raiders6.16.67.20.0–15.3
46Mike Washington Jr.Raidersat 49ers6.16.67.00.0–15.3
47RJ HarveyBroncosat Panthers4.86.48.00.0–15.1
48David MontgomeryTexansat Chargers5.76.36.90.0–14.9
49Saquon BarkleyEaglesvs Giants5.36.16.80.0–14.6
50Kimani VidalChargersvs Texans4.75.66.40.0–13.9
51Devin SingletaryGiantsat Eagles3.94.75.50.0–12.8
52TreVeyon HendersonPatriotsvs Packers4.04.65.30.0–12.6
53MarShawn LloydPackersat Patriots3.64.45.30.0–12.4
54Bam KnightCardinalsat Seahawks3.54.45.20.0–12.3
55Chris Rodriguez Jr.Jaguarsat Ravens4.04.34.50.0–12.2
56Keaton MitchellChargersvs Texans3.14.15.10.0–12.0
57Brian RobinsonFalconsvs Bengals3.54.04.50.0–11.8
58Tank BigsbyEaglesvs Giants3.33.84.20.0–11.5
59Tyrone Tracy Jr.Giantsat Eagles2.73.34.00.0–10.9
60Roschon JohnsonBearsvs Buccaneers2.12.73.40.0–10.1
Each call, in one sentence(10)
  • Our projection has Jahmyr Gibbs at 26.5 half-PPR points at the Dolphins in Week 9, 2026, our RB1.
  • Our projection has Kenneth Walker III at 20.3 half-PPR points against the Jets in Week 9, 2026, our RB2.
  • Our projection has D'Andre Swift at 19.3 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 9, 2026, our RB3.
  • Our projection has Christian McCaffrey at 18.3 half-PPR points against the Raiders in Week 9, 2026, our RB4.
  • Our projection has Bijan Robinson at 17.9 half-PPR points against the Bengals in Week 9, 2026, our RB5.
  • Our projection has James Cook at 17.7 half-PPR points at the Vikings in Week 9, 2026, our RB6.
  • Our projection has Javonte Williams at 17.2 half-PPR points at the Colts in Week 9, 2026, our RB7.
  • Our projection has Kyren Williams at 16.0 half-PPR points at the Commanders in Week 9, 2026, our RB8.
  • Our projection has Chuba Hubbard at 15.9 half-PPR points against the Broncos in Week 9, 2026, our RB9.
  • Our projection has Chase Brown at 15.6 half-PPR points at the Falcons in Week 9, 2026, our RB10.

Wide Receivers, Week 9, 2026 (67 players)

Wide Receivers fantasy projections for Week 9, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
RkPlayerGameStdHalf-PPRPPRRange
1Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeahawksvs Cardinals15.118.822.69.0–32.1
2Puka NacuaRamsat Commanders14.618.722.99.0–32.0
3CeeDee LambCowboysat Colts14.618.322.08.6–31.3
4Amon-Ra St. BrownLionsat Dolphins12.516.219.87.1–28.4
5Ja'Marr ChaseBengalsat Falcons12.916.119.37.1–28.3
6Tee HigginsBengalsat Falcons11.714.417.25.9–26.0
7Malik NabersGiantsat Eagles10.213.516.75.2–24.7
8Matthew GoldenPackersat Patriots10.513.316.15.0–24.5
9Chris OlaveSaintsvs Browns9.913.016.04.8–24.0
10Drake LondonFalconsvs Bengals10.112.615.24.6–23.5
11DeVonta SmithEaglesvs Giants9.012.215.44.2–22.9
12Tetairoa McMillanPanthersvs Broncos9.312.014.74.1–22.7
13Michael WilsonCardinalsat Seahawks9.012.015.04.1–22.6
14Christian WatsonPackersat Patriots9.311.714.13.9–22.3
15George PickensCowboysat Colts9.311.714.03.9–22.2
16Davante AdamsRamsat Commanders9.111.514.03.8–22.0
17Zay FlowersRavensvs Jaguars8.611.314.13.6–21.7
18Justin JeffersonVikingsvs Bills8.811.213.53.5–21.6
19Jameson WilliamsLionsat Dolphins9.111.013.03.4–21.3
20Emeka EgbukaBuccaneersat Bears8.310.613.03.1–20.8
21Mike Evans49ersvs Raiders8.310.412.53.0–20.5
22Garrett WilsonJetsat Chiefs7.910.412.82.9–20.4
23A.J. BrownPatriotsvs Packers8.010.212.52.8–20.2
24Luther Burden IIIBearsvs Buccaneers7.710.012.42.7–19.9
25Denzel BostonBrownsat Saints7.89.911.92.6–19.7
26Nico CollinsTexansat Chargers7.39.611.82.4–19.3
27Parker WashingtonJaguarsat Ravens7.49.511.52.3–19.2
28Devaughn VeleSaintsvs Browns7.29.411.52.2–19.0
29Rome OdunzeBearsvs Buccaneers7.69.311.02.2–18.9
30Stefon DiggsCommandersvs Rams6.89.211.62.1–18.8
31Jalen CokerPanthersvs Broncos6.89.011.22.0–18.5
32Rashee RiceChiefsvs Jets6.38.911.51.9–18.4
33Xavier WorthyChiefsvs Jets6.88.610.41.7–18.0
34Makai LemonEaglesvs Giants6.48.510.71.6–17.9
35Josh DownsColtsvs Cowboys6.58.510.41.6–17.8
36Keenan AllenColtsvs Cowboys6.08.410.91.5–17.7
37KC ConcepcionBrownsat Saints6.48.410.41.5–17.7
38Jaylen WaddleBroncosat Panthers6.38.410.51.5–17.7
39Tre TuckerRaidersat 49ers6.58.310.21.5–17.6
40Ryan FlournoyCowboysat Colts6.48.29.91.3–17.4
41Ricky Pearsall49ersvs Raiders6.18.110.21.3–17.3
42Jordan AddisonVikingsvs Bills6.38.09.71.3–17.2
43Malik WashingtonDolphinsvs Lions5.87.89.81.1–16.9
44Khalil ShakirBillsat Vikings5.87.89.81.1–16.9
45Antonio WilliamsCommandersvs Rams5.47.18.90.6–15.9
46Jakobi MeyersJaguarsat Ravens5.37.18.80.6–15.9
47Courtland SuttonBroncosat Panthers5.36.88.30.4–15.5
48Chris Godwin Jr.Buccaneersat Bears5.06.68.30.3–15.3
49Deebo Samuel Sr.49ersvs Raiders5.06.68.10.2–15.2
50DJ MooreBillsat Vikings4.86.58.20.2–15.1
51DeMario DouglasPatriotsvs Packers4.96.58.00.1–15.0
52Adonai MitchellJetsat Chiefs4.56.28.00.0–14.7
53Dontayvion WicksEaglesvs Giants4.46.07.60.0–14.4
54Mack HollinsPatriotsvs Packers4.05.77.30.0–13.9
55Quentin JohnstonChargersvs Texans4.15.56.80.0–13.7
56Laquon TreadwellColtsvs Cowboys4.15.36.40.0–13.4
56Terry McLaurinCommandersvs Rams3.55.26.90.0–13.3
57Rashid ShaheedSeahawksvs Cardinals3.65.06.50.0–13.1
58Kendrick BourneCardinalsat Seahawks3.25.06.80.0–13.1
59Alec PierceColtsvs Cowboys3.85.06.30.0–13.1
60Ladd McConkeyChargersvs Texans3.34.86.30.0–12.7
61Romeo DoubsPatriotsvs Packers3.44.76.10.0–12.6
62Jerry JeudyBrownsat Saints3.14.35.50.0–12.0
63Brian Thomas Jr.Jaguarsat Ravens2.23.24.30.0–10.6
64Marvin Harrison Jr.Texansat Chargers1.62.83.90.0–9.9
65Troy FranklinBroncosat Panthers1.62.43.20.0–9.5
66Jauan JenningsVikingsvs Bills1.52.43.20.0–9.3
Each call, in one sentence(10)
  • Our projection has Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 18.8 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 9, 2026, our WR1.
  • Our projection has Puka Nacua at 18.7 half-PPR points at the Commanders in Week 9, 2026, our WR2.
  • Our projection has CeeDee Lamb at 18.3 half-PPR points at the Colts in Week 9, 2026, our WR3.
  • Our projection has Amon-Ra St. Brown at 16.2 half-PPR points at the Dolphins in Week 9, 2026, our WR4.
  • Our projection has Ja'Marr Chase at 16.1 half-PPR points at the Falcons in Week 9, 2026, our WR5.
  • Our projection has Tee Higgins at 14.4 half-PPR points at the Falcons in Week 9, 2026, our WR6.
  • Our projection has Malik Nabers at 13.5 half-PPR points at the Eagles in Week 9, 2026, our WR7.
  • Our projection has Matthew Golden at 13.3 half-PPR points at the Patriots in Week 9, 2026, our WR8.
  • Our projection has Chris Olave at 13.0 half-PPR points against the Browns in Week 9, 2026, our WR9.
  • Our projection has Drake London at 12.6 half-PPR points against the Bengals in Week 9, 2026, our WR10.

Tight Ends, Week 9, 2026 (36 players)

Tight Ends fantasy projections for Week 9, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
RkPlayerGameStdHalf-PPRPPRRange
1Brock BowersRaidersat 49ers9.813.016.25.1–23.9
2Trey McBrideCardinalsat Seahawks9.112.816.55.0–23.5
3George Kittle49ersvs Raiders10.212.615.04.9–23.2
4Isaiah LikelyGiantsat Eagles8.511.213.94.0–21.0
5Sam LaPortaLionsat Dolphins8.010.112.23.3–19.4
6Tyler WarrenColtsvs Cowboys7.29.812.43.1–18.9
7Travis KelceChiefsvs Jets7.59.711.83.0–18.7
8Colston LovelandBearsvs Buccaneers7.39.511.83.0–18.5
9Tucker KraftPackersat Patriots6.99.011.22.7–17.7
10Harold Fannin Jr.Brownsat Saints6.48.710.92.4–17.2
11Dallas GoedertEaglesvs Giants5.47.59.51.7–15.3
12Jake Tonges49ersvs Raiders5.57.39.11.6–15.1
13Brenton StrangeJaguarsat Ravens5.17.08.91.4–14.6
14Tyler HigbeeRamsat Commanders5.27.19.01.5–14.8
14T.J. HockensonVikingsvs Bills5.17.08.81.4–14.6
15Dalton KincaidBillsat Vikings5.16.98.71.4–14.5
16Michael MayerRaidersat 49ers4.86.78.61.3–14.2
17AJ BarnerSeahawksvs Cardinals4.96.58.11.1–13.9
18Dalton SchultzTexansat Chargers4.26.38.41.0–13.6
19Juwan JohnsonSaintsvs Browns4.46.28.11.0–13.5
20Chig OkonkwoCommandersvs Rams4.36.17.80.8–13.2
21Greg DulcichDolphinsvs Lions4.15.87.50.7–12.8
22Cade OttonBuccaneersat Bears4.15.67.10.6–12.5
23Kyle PittsFalconsvs Bengals4.15.67.10.6–12.5
24Mason TaylorJetsat Chiefs3.55.26.90.3–11.8
25Hunter HenryPatriotsvs Packers3.55.16.70.3–11.7
26Mark AndrewsRavensvs Jaguars3.24.96.60.1–11.4
27David NjokuChargersvs Texans3.24.86.30.0–11.2
28Eli RaridonPatriotsvs Packers3.54.86.00.0–11.2
29Colby ParkinsonRamsat Commanders3.24.55.80.0–10.8
30Oronde Gadsden IIChargersvs Texans2.33.75.10.0–9.6
31Darren WallerPanthersvs Broncos2.74.15.50.0–10.2
31Jake FergusonCowboysat Colts2.13.55.00.0–9.3
32Charlie KolarChargersvs Texans2.23.44.70.0–9.2
33Evan EngramBroncosat Panthers1.62.84.00.0–8.3
34Theo JohnsonGiantsat Eagles1.42.43.40.0–7.6
Each call, in one sentence(10)
  • Our projection has Brock Bowers at 13.0 half-PPR points at the 49ers in Week 9, 2026, our TE1.
  • Our projection has Trey McBride at 12.8 half-PPR points at the Seahawks in Week 9, 2026, our TE2.
  • Our projection has George Kittle at 12.6 half-PPR points against the Raiders in Week 9, 2026, our TE3.
  • Our projection has Isaiah Likely at 11.2 half-PPR points at the Eagles in Week 9, 2026, our TE4.
  • Our projection has Sam LaPorta at 10.1 half-PPR points at the Dolphins in Week 9, 2026, our TE5.
  • Our projection has Tyler Warren at 9.8 half-PPR points against the Cowboys in Week 9, 2026, our TE6.
  • Our projection has Travis Kelce at 9.7 half-PPR points against the Jets in Week 9, 2026, our TE7.
  • Our projection has Colston Loveland at 9.5 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 9, 2026, our TE8.
  • Our projection has Tucker Kraft at 9.0 half-PPR points at the Patriots in Week 9, 2026, our TE9.
  • Our projection has Harold Fannin Jr. at 8.7 half-PPR points at the Saints in Week 9, 2026, our TE10.

Start or sit: compare two players

Pick the two you are torn between. The gap is our projection’s, and the rows underneath are the components that produce it. Free, like every number on this board.

Our projection has Josh Allen ahead by 0.6 Half-PPR points, 20.9 to 20.3. That gap is inside our own error bar; treat it as a tie.

Josh Allen compared with Brock Purdy, Half-PPR scoring.
 Josh AllenBrock PurdyGap
Projected Half-PPR20.920.30.6
Range (floor–ceiling)10.9–31.610.4–30.9—
Positional rankQB1QB2—
This weekat Vikingsvs Raiders—
Pass yards228.4303.5-75.1
Rush yards39.121.317.8
Carries74.42.6
Pass TDs1.41.9-0.5
Rush TDs0.70.30.4
Interceptions0.80.80

Components are the projection’s own expected stat line, not last week’s box score. Both numbers assume the player takes the field: the model does not forecast whether he is active, which is why the injury row is there and why a player ruled out carries a status instead of a number.

Tomorrow's card, by email

One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, across every sport we cover, published before play and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.

How these projections work

Projections are our own model's output: recent role and usage, shrunk efficiency rates, and the game's scoring environment. The range beside each number is modeled, not a fixed band: the 10th to 90th percentile of that player's outcomes for the week, fit from how projections like his have actually landed. Every projection is graded against actual fantasy points the week after it publishes. Every number is conditional on the player playing: a player ruled out carries his status instead of a projection, and a player who takes no offensive snap is excluded from the record rather than counted as a zero. One snap is enough to be graded — a player who was on the field is scored on what he actually did, including nothing at all. Nothing here is betting advice.

Kickers and team defenses are not on the board yet — the model projects the four positions where snaps and usage separate startable players. Team defenses are planned to join around Week 4, kickers later in the season, and both appear here first when they do.